US TSY FUTURES: Extending Lows after Brief Bounce
Jul-19 13:03
- Treasury futures are trading weaker, breaking through the low end of a narrow overnight range ahead the NY open. Tsy Sep'24 10Y futures currently -12.5 at 110-26.5 low after brief bounce to 110-30.5. Initial technical support at 110-15+ (20-day EMA) followed by 110-03 (50-day EMA) values.
- No obvious headline driver for the break lower, but rebound is classic for thin summer markets on a Friday with no data and a couple Fed speakers: 1040 NY Fed Williams monetary policy panel discussion at 1040ET, Atlanta Fed Bostic closing remarks at 1300ET.
- That said, while market depth may be thin, current volumes are anything but: TYU4 over 710k already. Volumes surged on the back of news that cloud software provider CrowdStrike was having outages that affect Microsoft systems around the globe overnight. Headlines of workaround solutions having been filtering through the last couple hours.
- Of course, speculation over whether President Biden will pull out of his run for a second term continue. Opinions vary over how FI markets will react if Biden pulls out, from no reaction at all to a surge in yields depending on who fills the void. Debate over curve moves ongoing as markets game out rate cuts, tariffs, deportations, etc.
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EQUITIES: Estoxx put spread
Jun-19 12:59
SX5E (19th July) 4750/4350ps, bought for 32.9 in 3k.
EGB SYNDICATION: Cyprus 7-year EMTN: Priced
Jun-19 12:55
- Reoffer: 99.631 to yield 3.310%
- Spread set at MS+55bps (guidance was MS +60 bps area)
- Maturity: 27 June 2031
- Size: E1bln (in line with MNI expectations).
- Books closed in excess E9.3bln (ex JLM interest)
- Settlement: 27th June 2024 (T+6)
- HR: 105% vs 2.40% Nov-30 Bund (ref 100.021 + 91.6bp)
- ISIN: XS2849767202
- Coupon: Fixed, Annual, ACT/ACT
- Leads: Citi / Deutsche Bank (B&D / DM) / Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE / HSBC
- Timing: TOE 13:38BST / 14:38BST. FTT immediately.
From market source
US: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Unlikely To Make First Presidential Debate Stage
Jun-19 12:48
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appears unlikely to qualify for the first presidential debate, to be hosted by CNN on June 27, after multiple states declined to confirm his ballot access.
- The deadline to qualify is tomorrow and RFK doesn’t appear to have fulfilled either requirement for making the stage: Reaching a 15% vote-share in four high-quality national polls and gaining ballot access in enough states to add up to 270 electoral college votes – the minimum to win the presidency.
- CNN noted on Saturday: "Though not impossible in Kennedy’s case, it is less likely that candidates other than Biden and Trump will meet those requirements. Kennedy has received at least 15% in three qualifying polls so far and is currently on the ballot in six states, making him currently eligible for 89 Electoral College votes."
- RFK’s campaign will likely accuse states of dragging their feet on verifying the signatures he has submitted for his ballot access, although states are under no legal obligation to complete the process hastily.
- Reuters notes that Kennedy also filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission in May alleging that CNN "illegally" demanded that Kennedy meet "different criteria" to participate in the debate.
- RFK’s absence from the stage will be welcomed by both Biden and Trump although it is unclear from whom he is likely to siphon more votes. The debate will be the first time Trump and Biden have faced-off against each other since the 2020 presidential debates.
