PERU: Exports Reached New Record in 2024, BCRP Decision Next Week
Feb-07 12:12
- Peru’s Foreign Trade and Tourism Minister reported that Peruvian exports amounted to US$74.7 billion by the end of 2024, thus reaching a new historic record. The Andina article added that in the case of agricultural exports, Peruvian shipments reached US$12.8 billion, marking a 22.1% increase and a new record for the sector.
- "This new milestone in the export sector is proof of the efforts of our national business community”, Leon explained. "Besides, our export basket has benefited from the rising prices of key products such as cacao, coffee, gold, and copper," she added.
- Domestic focus ahead will be on the central bank meeting next Thursday. The BCRP will be encouraged by the latest set of inflation data in Peru, which showed annual headline CPI dip to 1.85%, keeping the door open to another 25bp rate cut in February.
- However, the explicit mention to the reference rate “approaching the level estimated as neutral”, a more hawkish Fed and prominent external risks relating to global trade may prompt a cautious hold at this juncture.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Oil Futures Remains Intact
Jan-08 12:03
- On the commodity front, a bear threat in Gold remains present despite the latest recovery. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. The first firm support to watch is $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, a strong climb would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high.
- In the oil space, the trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and the contract has traded higher again, today. A stronger reversal to the upside has exposed key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose support at the 20-day EMA, at $71.11. This average is seen as a key short-term support.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Bearish Trend Sequence Intact
Jan-08 12:02
- RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 110-04 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 109-04+ 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 108-02+ @ 11:49 GMT Jan 08
- SUP 1: 108-01+ Low Jan 7
- SUP 2: 108-00 1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
- SUP 3: 107-19+ 1.618 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
- SUP 4: 107-04 1.764 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Tuesday’s fresh cycle low confirms a resumption of the downtrend and the contract is approaching the next objective at 108-00, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 109-04+, the 20-day EMA.
MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -3.7% SA THRU JAN 03 WK
Jan-08 12:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -3.7% SA THRU JAN 03 WK
