OPTIONS: Expiries for Jun19 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Jun-18 14:30
- EUR/USD: $1.1415-25(E2.4bln), $1.1475-00(E2.5bln), $1.1510-20(E629mln), $1.1545-50(E1.2bln), $1.1585-00(E3.2bln)
- GBP/USD: $1.3500(Gbp511mln)
- EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8600(E519mln)
- EUR/JPY: Y161.90-00(E981mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6460(A$741mln), $0.6550(A$683mln), $0.6600(A$1.1bln)
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STIR: SFRZ5 Blocked
May-19 14:29
Latest block trade blocked at 10:07:20 NY/15:07:20 London:
- SFRZ5 4.0K lots blocked at 96.180, looks buyer driven.
US SWAPS: Spreads Holding Tighter
May-19 14:11
Note that swap spreads hold tighter on the day, last 0.8-2.2bp lower, with the long end under the most pressure. Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. after hours on Friday is having a mechanical impact here, cheapening bonds to swaps.
US DATA: Leading Index Sees Sharpest Drop Since 2023 But Avoids Recession Signal
May-19 14:06
- The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell -1.0% M/M as expected in April after a downward revised -0.8% (initial -0.7) in March.
- The press release notes this is the “largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize”.
- “Most components of the index deteriorated. Notably, consumers’ expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025, while the contribution of building permits and average working hours in manufacturing turned negative in April.”
- “Widespread weaknesses were also present when looking at six-month trends among the LEI’s components, resulting in a warning signal for growth. However, while the six-month growth rate of the LEI went deeper into negative territory, it did not fall enough to trigger the recession signal.”
- The Conference Board currently forecasts US real GDP growth of 1.6% in 2025 after 2.8% in 2024, “with the bulk of the impact of tariffs likely to hit the economy in Q3.”
