US DATA: Existing Home Sale Price Inflation Resilient To Supply Normalization

Feb-21 15:14
  • Existing home sales were softer than expected in January at 4.08m (cons 4.13m) after an upward revised 4.29m (initial 4.24m).
  • It left sales growth at -4.9% M/M to eat into three solid monthly increases, suggesting a slowing in what had appeared a nascent recovery.
  • This is against a backdrop of mortgage activity remaining extremely subdued, with few signs of life in the last 2 years outside of a brief rise in refinancings in September as Treasury yields fell in anticipation of the Fed rate cut cycle starting.
  • Back to the January data, months of supply saw a sizeable increase, up to 3.5 for this January vs 3.0 in 2024 and 2.9 in 2023 to broadly close the gap to pre-pandemic levels having averaged 3.6 through 2017-19. It's a continuation of the normalization seen through 2H24.
  • Median price growth remains impressively robust considering this normalization in relative supply, at 4.8% Y/Y. 
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Jan-22 15:06

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SPAIN: Junts Side w/Opposition In Blow To Sanchez Gov't

Jan-22 15:02

The pro-Catalan independence Junts teamed up with the main opposition conservative Popular Party (PP) in the Congress of Deputies to deliver a major blow to the coalition gov't of PM Pedro Sanchez. In a 177-171 vote, Junts sided with the opposition to vote down the gov'ts omnibus decree that will halt a planned increase in pension disbursements in line with inflation and cut transport subsidies. 

  • The opposition has previously criticised the gov'ts frequent inclusion of a wide range of issues in its decrees, which it says makes it impossible to support. The specific measure, among the 100+ included in the decree, that the PP objected to related to the transfer of a building housing the Instituto Cervantes in Paris to the Basque Nationalist Party.
  • Justice and Presidency Minister Felix Bolanos said following the vote that when pensions do not increase in line with inflation "let them remember that it was the PP accompanied by others. [...] when public transport users see that the price of their ticket has increased, let them remember that it was the PP accompanied by others,"
  • Catalan News reports "There is growing discontent within Junts over what they see as a failure of the Spanish government to fully implement the agreements reached between them,"
  • Should Junts vote with the opposition in any prospective confidence vote, it would be enough to bring down the Sanchez administration. Current opinion polling shows a right-wing PP-Vox coalition as the most likely to hold a majority in a future vote. 

US: House Republican Leaders To Hold Press Conference Shortly

Jan-22 15:01

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is shortly due to hold a House Republican leadership press conference at RNC headquarters in Washington, D.C. where he has promised more details on how Congress intends to legislate President Donald Trump's agenda LIVESTREAM.

  • A series of meetings between President Trump and Republican leaders at the White House yesterday appear to have done little to resolve a dispute between the two chambers over the best strategy for reconciliation – the process by which the governing party can pass legislation along party lines. The public standoff indicates that, beyond the political theatre of Trump’s post-inaugural flurry of executive orders, the Republican-controlled Congress is no closer to determining the best way to push Trump’s agenda through the narrowest House majority since 1931.
  • Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) both struck a positive tone after the White House meetings, but their comments suggested that a firm agreement hasn’t yet been struck, with Johnson continuing to back a single huge reconciliation bill to cover the bulk of Trump’s agenda and Thune advocating dividing the agenda into two packages. While Trump has offered public support for the one-bill strategy (one big beautiful bill), his backing hasn’t been forceful enough to crystalise a strategy.