EURUSD TECHS: Off Highs, But Still Bullish
- RES 4: 1.1409 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1342 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 2: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 1: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- PRICE: 1.1135 @ 08:19 BST Sep 27
- SUP 1: 1.1109/1035 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1002 Low Sep 11
- SUP 3: 1.0940 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
The short-term outlook in EURUSD remains bullish, despite the fade off highs Wednesday. 1.1202, the Aug 26 high and a bull trigger, has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a move towards 1.1234, a Fibonacci projection and 1.1276, the Jul 18 '23 high. Support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 1.1109, it has been pierced but remains intact.
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Historical bullets
GILTS: Flat Start, BoE’s Mann To Speak Later
G Z4 +12 at 98.92.
- Initial resistance at yesterday’s high (99.21), support at yesterday’s low (98.54).
- Over 80% of the quarterly futures roll is complete, first notice for U4 is tomorrow.
- Yields ~1.5bp lower across the curve.
- BoE hawk Mann will appear on a panel discussing “The Value of Economic Research for Policy” (13:15 London). There is no live streaming of the event.
- Don’t expect much new from Mann today (more to come on that in later bullets).
- BoE comments have refrained from signalling a need for back-to-back cuts, stopping the market from fully discounting sequential easing at meetings through early ’25 (~40bp of cuts currently priced through year end).
- Oil swings will continue to be eyed, given spill over into FI markets in recent weeks.
- On the supply front, the DMO will sell GBP1.5bn of 0.75% Nov-33 I/L.
EGB SYNDICATION: Austria 5-year RAGB: Books open
- Guidance: MS+10bps area
- Maturity: 20 October 2029
- Size: EUR Benchmark (MNI expects E4-5bln)
- Coupon: Fixed, Ann., ACT/ACT (Long 1st to 20 October 2025)
- Settlement: 4 September 2024 (T+5)
- ISIN: AT0000A3EPP2
- Bookrunners: BARC / BofA / DB (DM/B&D) / GSBE SE / HSBC / MS
- Timing: Books open, today's business
From market source
SILVER TECHS: Watching Support The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
- RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 2: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $30.502 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg
- PRICE: $29.539 @ 08:11 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: $28.979/26.451- 50-day EMA / Low Aug 8
- SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
- SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
A medium-term bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and recent gains appear to be a correction - for now. The metal on Aug 8, traded to a fresh cycle low (before rebounding) and this exposed key support at $26.018, May 2 low. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme. Note that the 50-day EMA has been cleared and is a concern for bears. A continuation higher would cancel the bearish theme and expose $30.502 next, a Fibonacci retracement.
