FOREX: EURUSD Reverses Towards Session Highs amid Tariff Comments
Feb-12 15:51
- Despite the hotter-than-expected inflation data in the US, EURUSD’s attempt lower remained contained, with spot only printing a 1.0317 low in the direct aftermath.
- Subsequently, the reversal higher for major equity indices and the single currency’s outperformance against the likes of the Yen, AUD and NZD has helped propel EURUSD back above pre-data levels, narrowing the gap to the early European highs at 1.0386.
- EURUSD resilience may have also been fuelled by most recent commentary on tariffs. First of all, the Hasset comments on reciprocal tariffs being a “work in progress”, may have boosted risk sentiment at the margin, while the latest headline from the EU trade chief on finding a tariff solution may also be supportive.
- A short-term bull theme in EURUSD remains intact for now. Attention is on the candle formation on Feb 3 - a hammer - that signals a possible reversal. 1.0427, the 50-day EMA, marks a key resistance. A clear break of it would be a bullish development.
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PIPELINE: $1.5B CBA 5Y SOFR Launched
Jan-13 15:36
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/13 $1.5B #CBA 5Y SOFR+69
- 01/13 $3B KFW +5Y +43a
- 01/13 $2B CADES 5Y SOFR+70a
- 01/13 $Benchmark Micron 10Y +130a
- 01/13 $Benchmark IFC 3Y SOFR+33a
- 01/13 $Benchmark CAF 5Y SOFR+90a
- 01/13 $Benchmark EBRD 5.5Y SOFR+42
- 01/13 $Benchmark Ares Strategic 7Y +200a
- 01/13 $Benchmark BNG Bank 5Y SOFR+50a
- 01/13 $Benchmark KHFC 5Y +95a, 5Y SOFR
- 01/13 $Benchmark Rabobank 3Y, 3Y SOFR, 8NC7
- 01/13 $Benchmark Blue Owl Tech Fin 3Y +215a
- 01/13 $Benchmark Apollo Debt Solutions 7Y +21a
- 01/13 $Benchmark Deere 10Y +90a, 30Y +105a
- 01/13 $Benchmark British Colombia 3Y SOFR+46a
- 01/13 $Benchmark Plains All American 10Y +145a
- 01/13 $Benchmark Eastern Energy Gas 10Y +130a, 30Y +150a
- 01/13 $Benchmark Standard Chartered 4NC3, 4NC3 SOFR, 11NC10
- 01/13 $Benchmark Citadel investor calls
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Mar'25 5Y Sale
Jan-13 15:32
- -5,000 FVH5 105-13.5, sell through 105-13.75 post time bid at 1023:37ET, DV01 $207,000. The 5Y contract trades 105-13.25 last
CANADA: Alberta Premier After Trump Meet-Don't Expect Exemptions From US Tariffs
Jan-13 15:03
Premier of the Canadian province of Alberta Danielle Smith has been talking to the media after a meeting between her and US President-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Smith says Canada "should have prepared [for the likelihood] that tariffs are coming." Says Canada "will have to respond if there is a 25% tariff". Says she is "not expecting any exemptions from tariffs." Smith's comments come
- After the meeting, Smith said “We had a friendly and constructive conversation during which I emphasized the mutual importance of the U.S. – Canadian energy relationship, and specifically, how hundreds of thousands of American jobs are supported by energy exports from Alberta,” Speaking to CBC, Smith says that "An oil embargo would risk a national unity crisis".
- Foreign Minister Melanie Joly is expected in Washington, D.C., this week in an effort to dissuade Trump team officials from imposing tariffs. However, it remains to be seen how effective the overtures from Trudeau gov't ministers will be given the comments directed towards the outgoing PM from the incoming president in recent weeks.
- With a change in leadership coming in Ottawa in March, and the strong probability of a snap general election shortly after, officials from the main opposition Conservative Party of Canada (or regional parties supportive of the CPC like Smith's United Conservative Party) could end up as more effective interlocutors with the Trump administration given that opinion polls show the party as strong favourites to win a majority and the closer ideological stances between the CPC and Trump's Republican party.
