FOREX: EURUSD Pressing Fresh Weekly Lows, Breaching S-T Trendline Support
Apr-30 15:45
- Broad single currency weakness playing out in the aftermath of month-end, prompting EURUSD to press fresh weekly lows below 1.1330. In the process, EURUSD is testing below a short-term trendline with multiple touches (hourly chart attached).
- While the recent pullback in EURUSD is considered corrective and the bullish trend structure is unchanged for now, the pair’s ability to gain traction above 1.14 this week appears a relatively bearish development at the margin. A break of the April 23 low at 1.1308 would focus the market on key support at the 20-day EMA (1.1251), of which a break would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback towards 1.1144 initially.
- Despite the weaker equity benchmarks, the likes of EURAUD and EURCAD are underperforming, both down ~0.6% on the session. Notably, EURJPY has had a near 100 pip pullback to print a new session low by one pip at 161.71. This narrows the gap to the first EURJPY support at 161.43, the 50-day EMA.
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STIR: ECB Spillover Sees Fed Rate Path Continue Intraday Lift
Mar-31 15:39
- Fed Funds implied rates have been nudged a little higher following a hawkish adjustment in ECB pricing on Bloomberg sources suggesting April is a closer decision than markets were pricing.
- Implied rates are a little above where they were prior to today’s mfg surveys, limiting the day’s decline having opened notably lower after the weekend.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 5bp May, 21.5bp Jun, 37.5bp Jul, 53.5bp Sep and 75bp Dec.
- May and June meeting implied rates are now 0.5bp from Friday’s close whilst Dec is 2bp lower vs 7bp lower as US desks filtered in this morning.
- The 75bp of cuts for 2025 still compares with 64bp prior to Friday’s PCE report and subsequent further ratcheting lower in the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow – see the below table for a broader comparison.
- The MNI Chicago PMI was higher than expected at 47.6 (cons 45.0). Its prices paid index edged lower but was otherwise at its second highest reading since Aug 2022 whilst the new orders index technically increased to its highest since Nov 2023 but remained sub-50.
FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.205%(ALLOT 90.20%)
Mar-31 15:32
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.205%(ALLOT 90.20%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 38.39% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 5.74% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 55.87% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.74
FED: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.070%(ALLOT 51.15%)
Mar-31 15:32
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.070%(ALLOT 51.15%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 23.16% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 4.73% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 72.12% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.99
