PLN: EURPLN Re-Approaching Trendline Resistance Ahead of NBP Presser

Latest BBG sources story on EU tariff retaliation:

• "The European Union plans to hit about €100 billion ($113 billion) in US good with additional tariffs in the event ongoing trade talks fail to yield a satisfactory result for the bloc, according to people familiar with the matter."
• "The proposed retaliatory measures will be shared with member states as early as Wednesday and consultations will last for a month before the list is finalized, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the plans are private. The list could change in that time. "
• "Separately, the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm that handles trade matters, is expected to share a paper with the US this week to try to kick-start the negotiations, Bloomberg reported earlier. Proposals from the EU are expected to include lowering trade and non-tariff barriers and boosting investments in the US.   "

Fairly limited market reaction overall. The recovery in Estoxx 50 futures has stalled a little, but earlier session lows of 5178.00 remain some way off.

• Bund futures rose ~10 ticks to 131.05 before fading back to 130.99. The prospect of EU retaliation may exacerbate downside growth risks (via higher uncertainty and the potential for US tariffs on the EU to go back to 20% after the 90-day pause expires), but would also have an inflationary impact on the region.

• Treasury futures trading mixed - extend highs after latest tariff-related headlines: EU to target E100B of US goods if trade negotiations fail.
• Tsy Jun'25 10Y trades +1 at 111-03 (yld 4.3413) vs. 111-04 high, well off initial technical resistance at 112-01.5 (High May 2).
• Curves steeper with short end outperforming, 2s10s +2.066 at 52.761, 5s30s +1.179 at 90.532.

• ECB economist Vanessa Gunnella speaks to MNI about Chinese exports to Europe -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com