POLAND: EURPLN Edges to New Multi-Month Low, Below Consequential Support
Oct-22 10:07
The fade in EURPLN today picks up on the break of yesterday's 4.2336 lows, marking a new multi-month low for the cross.
- A weekly close at current or lower levels would be technically significant: marking a clean break of well-held support at 4.2403, the 38.2% retracement for the Feb-Apr rally. This level held well as support on several occasions in recent months, and could open losses toward horizontal support layered between 4.2187-4.2230.
- Moves comes despite the softer-than-expected retail sales print earlier today, with PLN outperforming against all other regional FX - suggesting flow-driven price action here rather than anything news-driven.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Remains Present
Sep-22 10:03
- On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear bull cycle. A fresh all-time high once again, today, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3744.2, a 1.500 projection of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing. Initial firm support lies at $3577.9, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, the trend condition in WTI is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.71, the May 30 low.
US TSY FUTURES: CFTC CoT Points to Reduction In Positioning Across Funds & AMs
Sep-22 09:59
Aggressive net long cover in US futures (~$9.6mln DV01) meant that asset managers reduced their curve-wide net long position by a little over $7mln on the week, with net long cover also seen in FV & TY futures, while there was net long setting in TU, UXY & WN futures. The cohort remains net long across all contracts.
- Leveraged funds lightened their curve-wide net short by ~$3.1mln DV01, with instances of net short cover (FV, TY & US) comfortably outweighing instances of net short setting (TU, UXY & WN). The cohort remains net short across the curve.
- Non-commercial accounts added to net shorts in the wings (TU & WN), while they covered some of their existing short position across the remainder of the curve. The cohort remains net short across all contracts. See table below for more details on the cohort’s positioning.
Source: MNI - Market News/CFTC/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
EGB OPTIONS: Bund Call Spread
Sep-22 09:58
RXX5 131/132cs, bought for 4.5 in 3k Total.
