LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (UK Time)

Nov-03 06:18
Date Time Country Event
03-Nov 0700 DE Trade Balance
03-Nov 0745 FR Industrial Production
03-Nov 1000 EU Unemployment
06-Nov 0700 DE Manufacturing Orders
06-Nov 0815 ES S&P Global Services PMI (f)
06-Nov 0845 IT S&P Global Services PMI (f)
06-Nov 0850 FR S&P Global Services PMI (f)
06-Nov 0855 DE S&P Global Services PMI (f)
06-Nov 0900 EU S&P Global Services PMI (f)
07-Nov 0700 DE Industrial Production
07-Nov 0730 EU S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI
07-Nov 0800 ES Industrial Production
07-Nov 0835 EU ECB's de Guindos fireside organised by Deloitte
07-Nov 1000 EU PPI
08-Nov 0700 DE HICP (f)
08-Nov 0745 FR Foreign Trade
08-Nov 0900 IT Retail Sales
08-Nov 0900 EU ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
08-Nov 1000 EU Retail Sales
08-Nov 1045 EU ECB's Lane does keynote speech in Latvia
08-Nov EU ECB's Lagarde participates in Eurogroup meeting

Historical bullets

BUNDS: Yield are breaking through fresh decades high.

Oct-04 06:14
  • German Bund futures is down another 46 ticks into the cash open, and although Yields are not yet quoted, Bund should show above the Psychological 3% mark, equated to 126.89 Yesterday and 126.88 last week.
  • Similar for French OAT, would now have cleared last Thursday's high that was at 3.55%, equated to 121.53, printed a 121.26 low overnight.
  • BTP is heading towards the 5.000% equated to 107.73 Yesterday, printed a 107.79 low.
  • Next support for the French 10yr is at 3.600%, equates circa 121.03 (will update when quoted).
  • Today sees, Services PMIs, but final readings for FR/GE/EU/UK/US, EU PPI/Retail sales, US Factory orders, final Durable goods, US ISM services.
  • SUPPLY: UK £4.25 2y (Equates to 8k Gilt) shouldn't impact the contract. German EU3bn 7yr (equates to 18.4k Bund) should have limited impact.
  • SPEAKERS: ECB Lagarde, Centeno, Guindos, Panetta, s} Fed Bowman, Goolsbee.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Heading South

Oct-04 06:06
  • RES 4: 4388.00 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
  • RES 3: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
  • RES 2: 4283.20 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 4226.20 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 4106.00 @ 06:49 BST Oct 4
  • SUP 1: 4095.00 Low Mar 28 (cont)
  • SUP 2: 4055.40 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull cycle
  • SUP 3: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number

Eurostoxx 50 futures trend conditions remain bearish and the latest bounce has been corrective. The contract has traded below 4128.00, the Sep 27 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late July and signals scope for a move towards 4055.40, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 4226.20, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal a possible short-term base.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Oversold But Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

Oct-04 05:59
  • RES 4: 113.84 High Sep 14
  • RES 3: 112.52 High Sep 20
  • RES 2: 111.12 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 110.52 High Sep 27
  • PRICE: 108.47 @ Close Oct 3
  • SUP 1: 108.08 Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
  • SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
  • SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

A sharp sell-off in BTP futures last Thursday reinforced bearish conditions. However, the contract is in oversold territory and a move higher would be considered corrective and would allow the oversold condition to unwind. On the downside, the Sep 28 ‘22 low of 108.13 has been pierced - a major support. A clear break would open 107.08, a Fibonacci projection on the continuation chart. Resistance is at 110.52, the Sep 27 high.