LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (UK Time)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 03-Nov | 0700 | DE | Trade Balance |
| 03-Nov | 0745 | FR | Industrial Production |
| 03-Nov | 1000 | EU | Unemployment |
| 06-Nov | 0700 | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 06-Nov | 0815 | ES | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 06-Nov | 0845 | IT | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 06-Nov | 0850 | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 06-Nov | 0855 | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 06-Nov | 0900 | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 07-Nov | 0700 | DE | Industrial Production |
| 07-Nov | 0730 | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 07-Nov | 0800 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 07-Nov | 0835 | EU | ECB's de Guindos fireside organised by Deloitte |
| 07-Nov | 1000 | EU | PPI |
| 08-Nov | 0700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 08-Nov | 0745 | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 08-Nov | 0900 | IT | Retail Sales |
| 08-Nov | 0900 | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 08-Nov | 1000 | EU | Retail Sales |
| 08-Nov | 1045 | EU | ECB's Lane does keynote speech in Latvia |
| 08-Nov | EU | ECB's Lagarde participates in Eurogroup meeting |
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BUNDS: Yield are breaking through fresh decades high.
- German Bund futures is down another 46 ticks into the cash open, and although Yields are not yet quoted, Bund should show above the Psychological 3% mark, equated to 126.89 Yesterday and 126.88 last week.
- Similar for French OAT, would now have cleared last Thursday's high that was at 3.55%, equated to 121.53, printed a 121.26 low overnight.
- BTP is heading towards the 5.000% equated to 107.73 Yesterday, printed a 107.79 low.
- Next support for the French 10yr is at 3.600%, equates circa 121.03 (will update when quoted).
- Today sees, Services PMIs, but final readings for FR/GE/EU/UK/US, EU PPI/Retail sales, US Factory orders, final Durable goods, US ISM services.
- SUPPLY: UK £4.25 2y (Equates to 8k Gilt) shouldn't impact the contract. German EU3bn 7yr (equates to 18.4k Bund) should have limited impact.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Lagarde, Centeno, Guindos, Panetta, s} Fed Bowman, Goolsbee.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Heading South
- RES 4: 4388.00 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
- RES 3: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
- RES 2: 4283.20 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 4226.20 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 4106.00 @ 06:49 BST Oct 4
- SUP 1: 4095.00 Low Mar 28 (cont)
- SUP 2: 4055.40 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number
Eurostoxx 50 futures trend conditions remain bearish and the latest bounce has been corrective. The contract has traded below 4128.00, the Sep 27 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late July and signals scope for a move towards 4055.40, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 4226.20, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal a possible short-term base.
BTP TECHS: (Z3) Oversold But Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 113.84 High Sep 14
- RES 3: 112.52 High Sep 20
- RES 2: 111.12 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 110.52 High Sep 27
- PRICE: 108.47 @ Close Oct 3
- SUP 1: 108.08 Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
- SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
- SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
A sharp sell-off in BTP futures last Thursday reinforced bearish conditions. However, the contract is in oversold territory and a move higher would be considered corrective and would allow the oversold condition to unwind. On the downside, the Sep 28 ‘22 low of 108.13 has been pierced - a major support. A clear break would open 107.08, a Fibonacci projection on the continuation chart. Resistance is at 110.52, the Sep 27 high.
