LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
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BOBL TECHS: (U5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 117.710 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 117.640 High Aug 7
- RES 2: 117.514 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 117.356 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.200 @ 06:00 BST Aug 20
- SUP 1: 116.950 Low Aug 15
- SUP 2: 116.840 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)
Despite the latest recovery, a bearish theme in Bobl futures remains intact. A strong sell-off on Aug 15 highlights a bearish threat, once again. The contract has pierced support at 116.970, the Jul 25 low and a bear trigger. A clear breach of this level would set the scene for an extension towards 116.849, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance to watch is 117.514, the 50-day EMA.
EURUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
- RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24
- RES 1: 1.1730 High Aug 13
- PRICE: 1.1633 @ 06:06 BST Aug 20
- SUP 1: 1.1588 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10
- SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30
A consolidation mode dominates for now in EURUSD. The trend set up however, remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A resumption of gains would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Support to watch lies at 1.1588, the 50-day EMA. Major support rests at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low.
BUND TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 130.26 High Aug 8
- RES 3: 129.89/130.06 50-day EMA / High Aug 14
- RES 2: 129.58 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 129.18 High Aug 18
- PRICE: 129.10 @ 05:42 BST Aug 20
- SUP 1: 128.64 Low Aug 15
- SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont)
- SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)
A bear threat in Bund futures remains present. The contract traded sharply lower Friday resulting in a breach of 128.84, the Jul 25 low and bear trigger. Note that the 129.00 handle marks the base of a broad range and a clear range breakout would strengthen a bearish threat. This would open 128.40 initially, the Apr 9 low. Strength above the 50-day EMA of 129.89, is required to signal a reversal. Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 129.58.
