LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 23-May | 0700 | DE | GDP (f) |
| 23-May | 0745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 23-May | 0930 | EU | ECB's Lane Inflation Lecture in Florence |
| 23-May | 1700 | EU | ECB's Schnabel Speech on Financial Education /Monpol |
| 26-May | 0800 | ES | PPI |
| 26-May | 1400 | EU | ECB's Lagarde On Europe's Role In A Fragmented World |
| 27-May | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 27-May | 0745 | FR | HICP (p) |
| 27-May | 1000 | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 28-May | 0745 | FR | PPI / GDP / Consumer Spending |
| 28-May | 0855 | DE | Unemployment |
| 29-May | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Consumer/Business Confidence |
| 30-May | 0700 | DE | Import/Export Prices / Retail Sales |
| 30-May | 0800 | ES | HICP (p) |
| 30-May | 0900 | EU | M3 |
| 30-May | 0900 | IT | GDP (f) |
| 30-May | 0900 | DE | State level flash CPI |
| 30-May | 1000 | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30-May | 1100 | IT | PPI |
| 30-May | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
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BOBL TECHS: (M5) Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)
- RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number
- RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 119.780 High Apr 22
- PRICE: 119.630 @ 05:55 BST Apr 23
- SUP 1: 119.030 Low Apr 17
- SUP 2: 118.703 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 118.060 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
Bobl futures are holding on to their latest highs. Recent weakness appears corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. The early April rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high. This strengthens bullish conditions. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. Firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low. The 20-day EMA, an important short-term support, is at 118.703.
AUSSIE BONDS: Twist-Flattener, IMF Panel Discussion For RBA Gov
ACGBs (YM -6.0 & XM +1.5) are dealing mixed on a data light Sydney session, with the short-end under pressure as markets re-assess tariff-tied risks to global trade and the Trump Admin's efforts to meddling with the Federal Reserve's independent policy making.
- Risk-on sentiment extended into today's Asia-Pacific session after US President Trump stated that he had no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell.
- Trump also stated that the final tariff number for China wouldn't be near the current 145%.
- Cash US tsys have twist-flattened in today's Asia-Pac session, with yields 2bps higher to 8bps lower.
- Cash ACGBs are 5bps cheaper to 1bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -10bps.
- Today’s auction of the Apr-29 bond saw the weighted average yield settle 0.88bps below the prevailing mid-yield. However, the cover ratio declined dramatically to 3.2200x from 4.2143x at the previous auction.
- Swap rates are flat to 5bps higher, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
- The bills strip is cheaper with pricing -4 to -9.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-11bps firmer across meetings today. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 13% probability, with a cumulative 114bps of easing priced by year-end.
- Tomorrow morning, RBA Governor Bullock will participate in a panel discussion at the IMF Spring Meetings.
EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 2: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
- RES 1: 1.1573 High Apr 21
- PRICE: 1.1389 @ 06:05 BST Apr 23
- SUP 1: 1.1308 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.1167 20-day EMA and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.0919 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 4: 1.0805 Low Apr 3
The trend in EURUSD remains bullish and the pullback from Monday’s cycle high is considered corrective. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a continued dominant uptrend. The focus is on 1.1608 next, the Nov 9 2021 high. Key support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1167.
