LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (All Times in GMT)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 16-Nov | 1415 | EU | ECB's De Guindos participates in systemic risk board |
| 17-Nov | 0830 | EU | ECB Lagarde Keynote Speech at Banking Conference |
| 17-Nov | 0900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 17-Nov | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 17-Nov | 1500 | EU | ECB's Cipollone in digital euro round table |
| 20-Nov | 0500 | EU | ECB's Lane participates in CEBRA panel |
| 20-Nov | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Nov | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 21-Nov | 0745 | FR | Retail Sales |
| 21-Nov | 1600 | EU | ECB's Lagarde discusses Inflation and democracy |
| 21-Nov | 1715 | EU | ECB's Schnabel at Wurzburg Policy Lecture |
| 22-Nov | 1410 | EU | ECB's Elderson talks on stability and Green Transition |
| 22-Nov | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 23-Nov | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 23-Nov | 0815 | FR | S&P Global Services / Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23-Nov | 0830 | DE | S&P Global Services / Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23-Nov | 0900 | EU | S&P Global Services/ Manufacturing / Composite PMI (p) |
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UK DATA: Private sector regular pay a tenth higher than expected
- First glance looks as though the headline AWE numbers in line with expectations for August but the private AWE ex bonus came in a tenth higher than expected at 8.0% (we had a 7.9% median expectation from the sellside previews that we had read).
- The RTI payrolls fell 11kM/M to 30.1mln in September (with a small downward revision to the August number).
- Shouldn't really be much to move markets here - particularly as we noted earlier that the MPC seem to be de-emphasising this data since the September meeting.
EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 160.00 Psychological handle
- RES 3: 159.76 High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 158.65 High Sep 13
- RES 1: 158.61 High Oct 12
- PRICE: 157.75 @ 06:57 BST Oct 17
- SUP 1: 156.46/154.46 Low Oct 6 / Oct 3 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 154.10 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 153.39 76.4% of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 bull run
- SUP 4: 151.42 Late July Low and Bear Trigger
EURJPY remains in consolidation mode for now, and is trading above support at 154.46, the Oct 3 low. Resistance to watch is 158.65, the Sep 13 high. For bulls, a break of 158.65, would highlight a range breakout and expose the key resistance and bull trigger at 159.76, the Aug 30 high. On the downside, a move below 154.46 would represent an important break and strengthen a bearish case. This would open 153.39, a Fibonacci retracement.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Bear Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 4388.00 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
- RES 3: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
- RES 2: 4300.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 4249.70/4256.00 50-day EMA / High Oct 12
- PRICE: 4166.00 @ 06:37 BST Oct 17
- SUP 1: 4082.00 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 4055.40 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number
A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and last week’s reversal from 4256.00, the Oct 12 high, signals the end of the recent corrective cycle. Note too that resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4249.70, remains intact. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a stronger correction. The bear trigger lies at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
