MACRO ANALYSIS: Eurozone Macro Developments Since The Last ECB Decision
This note offers a succinct look at the main macroeconomic developments across inflation, activity indicators and the labour market since the last ECB decision. It’s part of the full MNI ECB Preview (here) ahead of Thursday’s decision although includes an update for today’s final November HICP report.
- Whilst there haven’t been any blowout surprises in Eurozone data, the main releases haven’t prevented a shift from a mild easing to a very mild hiking bias.
- Real GDP growth has been stronger than expected, although the December services PMI gave back the past two months of improvement in its preliminary release two days out from the ECB decision.
- Services inflation has helped see core HICP inflation a little stronger than expected but saw a contribution from volatile items such as package holidays.
- Finally, there was another upward revision to the unemployment rate in October but the latter remains close to historical lows when looking at the bigger picture.
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TARIFFS: UK "mulls options to retaliate" against EU steel trade barriers
"*UK MULLS OPTIONS TO RETALIATE AGAINST EUROPE OVER STEEL TARIFFS
*PEOPLE FAMILIAR DISCUSS UK PLANS FOR TARIFF RESPONSE TO EUROPE" - Bloomberg
This is in response to the EU reduction in import quotas announced on 7 October.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $6B Morgan Stanley 3Pt Launch, Amazon Guidance
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 11/17 $6B #Morgan Stanley $2.35B 3NC2 +80, $650M 3NC2 SOFR+78, $3B 6NC5 +75
- 11/17 $Benchmark Amazon 3Y +30, 5Y +40, +7Y +47, 10Y +55, 30Y +75, 40Y +85
- 11/17 $Benchmark Enbridge 3Y +63, +5Y +80, 10Y +110
- 11/17 $Benchmark Smurfit Westrock Fin 10Y +135a
- 11/17 $900M #Consolidated Edison 30Y +103
- 11/17 $750M Molina Health 5.25NC2
- 11/17 $600M #AptarGroup +5Y +105
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 114-02 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 113-29 High Oct 22
- RES 2: 113-18+ High Oct 28
- RES 1: 113-04+ High Nov 14
- PRICE: 112-21 @ 17:15 GMT Nov 17
- SUP 1: 112-10 100-dma
- SUP 2: 112-06 Low Sep 25 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 112-05 Trendline support drawn from the May 22 low
- SUP 4: 111-23 50.0% retracement of the May 22 - Oct 17 bull leg
Treasuries last week challenged resistance at the 113-02 level, an area of congestion since Nov 5. This hurdle remains intact, however, a clear move above it would be a bullish signal and shift focus on resistance at 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. A break would also cancel a short-term bearish theme. For bears, attention is on 112-10, the 100-DMA and 112-06, the Sep 25 low. Trendline support lies at 112-05.
