EQUITIES: Eurostoxx 50 Futures Remain Close to Bull Trigger at 5525.00
Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The contract recently cleared resistance around the 20-day EMA - a bullish development - and the subsequent rally reinforces a bullish theme. The move signals potential for a climb towards 5525.00, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support to monitor is 5302.00, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme. A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high on Monday. Price has recently breached the 6700.00 handle and this signals scope for an extension towards 6787.63, a Fibonacci projection point. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Initial support to watch lies at 6625.74, the 20-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 136.65 pts or +0.3% at 45630.31 and the TOPIX ended 7.28 pts higher or +0.23% at 3170.45.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 31.809 pts or +0.83% at 3853.642 and the HANG SENG ended 359.53 pts higher or +1.37% at 26518.65.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 15.08 pts or -0.06% at 23596.25, FTSE 100 lower by 16.82 pts or -0.18% at 9206.49, CAC 40 down 9.72 pts or -0.12% at 7862.3 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 2.79 pts or -0.05% at 5469.6.
- Dow Jones mini down 0 pts or 0% at 46637, S&P 500 mini up 8.25 pts or +0.12% at 6723.25, NASDAQ mini up 62.25 pts or +0.25% at 24890.5.
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GERMAN DATA: A Sixth Consecutive Improvement For Ifo Business Climate
The Germany Ifo business climate index increased for a sixth consecutive month in August as it takes it to the high of its range for the past eighteen months, but it still suggests little material upside to tepid German real GDP growth despite this.
- The Ifo Business Climate index was close to expectations as it slightly improved in August to 89.0 (cons 88.8) from 88.6 in July.
- Whilst still subdued by historical standards, it’s nevertheless at its highest since Apr 2024 on the back of six consecutive monthly improvements.
- This trend improvement has come with increases in both the current assessment and more notably the expectations indexes. This expectations-led improvement continued this month, with the expectations index rising to 91.6 (cons 90.5) from 90.8 vs the current assessment edging a tenth lower to 86.4 (cons 86.7).
- A seeming post-pandemic structural break with the historical fit between the business climate index and real GDP growth complicates the readthrough to growth implications, although rolling z-scores have more recently been useful.
- Here, the Ifo business climate has started to look a little more optimistic than the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Index (to July) but even then the Ifo series suggests little upside to still tepid German real GDP growth of 0.2% Y/Y as of Q2 (having averaged -0.4% since 1Q23).
MNI: GERMANY AUG IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 89
- MNI: GERMANY AUG IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 89
MNI EXCLUSIVE: China's equity market and economic impacts
- Advisors and analysts share their outlook on China's equity market and its economic impact.
- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
