EQUITIES: Eurostoxx 50 Futures Continue to Trade at Their Recent Lows

Jun-19 08:50

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade at their recent lows. The latest pullback has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA at 5297.44. Price has also pierced 5255.00, the May 23 low. A clear break of both support points would signal a short-term top and highlight scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5178.00, the May 6 low, and 5081.16, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 5347.51, the 20-day EMA. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. For now, the most recent shallow pullback is considered corrective. The contract has pierced support at 6006.73, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would suggest potential for a deeper retracement and expose the 50-day EMA, at 5902.27. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high.

  • Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 396.81 pts or -1.02% at 38488.34 and the TOPIX ended 16.27 pts lower or -0.58% at 2792.08.
  • Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 26.701 pts or -0.79% at 3362.108 and the HANG SENG ended 472.95 pts lower or -1.99% at 23237.74.
  • Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 117.48 pts or -0.5% at 23200.33, FTSE 100 lower by 32.93 pts or -0.37% at 8810.56, CAC 40 down 52.78 pts or -0.69% at 7603.34 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 35.36 pts or -0.67% at 5231.55.
  • Dow Jones mini down 181 pts or -0.43% at 42007, S&P 500 mini down 25.75 pts or -0.43% at 5955.5, NASDAQ mini down 112.25 pts or -0.52% at 21608.

Historical bullets

GILT SYNDICATION: 5.375% Jan-56 gilt: Spread set

May-20 08:46
  • Spread set: 4.25% Dec-55 gilt (GB00BT7J0241) + 1.75bp (guidance was 1.75bp/2.25bp)
  • Size: GBP benchmark (MNI expects GBP5.5-8.5bln)
  • Books in excess of GBP70bln (inc JLM interest of GBP3.75bln)
  • ISIN: GB00BT7J0241
  • JLMs: BNP Paribas, BofA Securities, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs International Bank (B&D / DM) and Santander
  • Settlement: 21 May 2025 (T+1)
  • Maturity: 31 January 2056
  • Coupon: 5.375%. Short first
  • Timing: Books to close at 10:00BST (as MNI expected)

From market source / MNI colour

BOE: Pill on real income resistances

May-20 08:43

Pill is now starting the Q&A.

  • He went off script a bit on the welfare losses based on real income resistances (based on policymakers' beliefs vs true levels) and went into quite a bit more detail than the prepared text discusses.
  • He argues that there are two-sided risks to assuming real income resistance is either too high or too low. And that there is no general result to be either too worried or not worried enough about intrinsic inflation.
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OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline

May-20 08:31
  • EUR/USD: May21 $1.1140-50(E1.3bln), $1.1250(E1.1bln), $1.1390-05(E2.1bln); May22 $1.1175(E1.9bln); May23 $1.1145-50(E1.1bln), $1.1180-85(E1.1bln), $1.1300(E1.0bln), $1.1330-50(E1.3bln), $1.1400(E1.1bln)
  • USD/JPY: May23 Y144.00($1.4bln), Y145.00($1.9bln)
  • GBP/USD: May22 $1.3260-70(Gbp1.5bln)
  • USD/CAD: May22 C$1.4050($1.3bln); May23 C$1.4000-15($1.2bln)