SECURITY: Europeans Privately Tell Russia They’re Ready to Shoot Down Jets
European diplomats have privately warned the Kremlin that NATO is ready to respond to further violations of its airspace with full force, including by shooting down Russian planes, officials told Bloomberg.
- This follows concerns about an incursion y three MiG-31 fighter jets over Estonia last week, according to the officials.
- European officials concluded that the incursion was deliberate, while Russian officials have denied that their planes crossed into Estonian airspace, insisting that they are not trying to test NATO.
- Trump backed NATO leaders, including Poland’s Donald Tusk, who have made robust calls for shooting down Russian jets while German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said NATO allies risk sleepwalking into Putin’s “escalation trap” if they fire at Russian aircraft.
- The warnings to the Kremlin have caused oil to pare losses on the day, concerned that an escalation could further impact Russian oil flows. The most likely mechanism for this would come either via additional sanctions.
- Shooting down of a Russian jet would be a form of military confrontation between NATO and Russia which risked escalation.
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US: Republican Concerns Over Inflation Recede
Republicans are less likely than Democrats to see inflation as a 'very serious' problem, according to a new YouGov Survey, with GOP voters registering a sharp decline in inflation concerns since August 2024.
- YouGov: “Republicans are much less likely than they were in August 2024 to see many of the problems asked about as very serious. 48% say inflation is a very serious problem, down from 89% who said this a year ago. They also are far less likely to see election fraud (33% vs. 59%) and unemployment (19% vs. 40%) as very serious problems now as they were a year ago.”
- YouGov continues: “For Democrats, it’s the opposite — they’re more likely than they were a year ago to perceive many issues as serious problems. They are more likely now than in August 2024 to describe as very serious problems inflation (71% vs. 45%), lack of public transportation (35% vs. 26%), and corruption (72% vs. 51%).”
- According to Silver Bulletin, inflation remains Trump's weakest issue with voters. Per SB's aggregated polling, Trump has a -25% net approval on inflation, compared with -15% on trade, -12% on the economy, and -3.5% on immigration.
Figure 1: “How serious of a problem do you [Republicans] think the following are in the United States? (% who say "a very serious problem)”
Source: YouGov
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