NOKSEK extends session lows as US President Trump’s latest tariff threats against China weigh on crude oil and natural gas futures. The cross hovers just above support at 0.9147 at typing - the 76.4% retracement of the March 2020 – March 2022 bull leg.
- Beyond this level, there is little in the way of firm support until 0.8530 (March 19, 2020 low). However, the intraday lows between March 20, 2020 and March 25, 2020 (0.9083, 0.8866, 0.8739 and 0.8639) may be worth monitoring in the interim.
- In addition to now familiar tariff-related headlines, NOKSEK may be sensitive to tomorrow’s Riksbank speeches, with Bunge (0645BST) and Thedeen (1230BST) scheduled to speak.
- Although inter-meeting Riksbank speak often aligns with rhetoric in the latest set of monetary policy meeting minutes, the lower-than-expected March inflation report and fallout from Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcements could tempt policymakers into suggesting a future cut is more likely than a future hike (even if the base case is for rates to remain at 2.25% for now).
- Earlier today, Swedbank added a 25bp cut in August to their forecast, after previously expecting rates to remain on hold at 2.25% through the course of this year.