UKRAINE: European Ldrs To Meet On War 18 Dec; Russia Hits Key Energy Infra
Reuters reporting that according to its sources, the leaders of Germany, France, Poland, NATO 'and others' are set to meet in Brussels on 18 Dec to discuss the situation of the war in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is also set to take part, but this is not confirmed whether it is in person or virtually.
- Prior to this, on 16 Dec EU foreign affairs ministers will meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha in attendance as well. Ministers are set to formally approve the 15th package of sanctions on Russia.
- Politico: "The new penalties will bar an additional 52 tankers from EU ports, raising the total to 79 in a bid to rein in Russia’s “shadow fleet,” a group of aging ships trading sanctioned fuel behind murky ownership structures. The package will also penalize individuals and companies accused of helping the Kremlin secure banned technologies."
- Following a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on 12 Dec, Polish PM Donald Tusk said that there were no plans for troops (from Poland at least) to be on the ground in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.
- The planned meeting comes after a massive aerial bombardment of Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of 12 Dec. Russia claims the attacks are intended to degrade Ukraine's military-industrial complex, but forcing mass blackouts on civilian populations in midwinter has been an increasingly common tactic for Russian forces.
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USD: USDCAD highest since May 2020
- Quick turnaround in the Dollar, paring all the US CPI weakness.
- USDCAD spikes to its highest level since May 2020, and targets a test to 1.4000.
US: GOP Senate Leadership Elections Underway Shortly
Republican Senators will meet shortly to elect their first new leader in 18 years, replacing the outgoing Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) – a longtime stalwart of traditional conservativism in the Senate. Senators will hear final pitches from candidates and nominating speeches from colleagues before voting gets underway in a secret ballot. If no candidate receives 27 votes in the first round, the lowest vote-getter will be removed for a second round of voting.
- According to Polymarket, Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-SD), the most institutionally minded of the three candidates, is slight favourite with a 64% implied probability of winning. Thune will be formally nominated by RNCC Chair Steve Daines (R-MT) - an influential figure since his strategy resulted in a major electoral turnaround from the 2022 midterm elections.
- Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) is second favourite with a 25% implied probability of winning following a surge of support from Trump-aligned conservatives in the media and a recent endorsement from Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX). Although Scott is likely Trump’s favoured candidate, Trump appears unwilling to publicly back Scott without assurances he can win the secret ballot. Scott will be nominated by Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Bill Haggerty (R-TN) – two heavyweights in Trump’s orbit, with the former earmarked for Secretary of State.
- Third candidate, Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) is considered a long-shot, with a 11.5% implied probability of winning.
- Senator John Barrasso (R-WY) is running unopposed for Senate Majority Whip. Senator Tom Cotton (R-AK) is in pole position against Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) for Conference Chair, the No. 3 Senate Republican.
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