SECURITY: Europe-Iran Talks In Geneva Underway Shorty

Jun-20 13:27

Iran Nuances reports on X: "The joint meeting of Iran’s Foreign Minister and the Foreign Ministers of the UK, France, Germany, and the EU foreign policy chief is expected to begin shortly in Geneva."

  • Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said moments ago, at a meeting of the UN Human Rights Council, per Reuters: “Israel's attacks on nuclear facilities in Iran are grave war crimes… We are determined to defend our territorial integrity and sovereignty with all force.”
  • Araghchi added, “We were supposed to meet Americans on June 15 to craft a very promising agreement on our nuclear programme,” adding that “Israel’s attack was a betrayal of diplomacy”.
  • The probability of a diplomatic solution in the near-term is unclear. On the ground, Iran and Israel continue to exchange intense missile fire and Israeli and Iranian ‘red lines’ appear entrenched.
  • CNN reports: “Among US officials, there were not high expectations of success for Friday’s meeting in Geneva, one US official said. But a White House official kept the door open to progress.”
  • CNN adds: “The US has so far not pressured Israel to halt its strikes, sources said. And Trump said this week that his message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been to “keep going.””
  • The US position appears to preclude the possibility of the US and Iran returning to direct talks. European officials also appear to have hardened their position toward Iranian enrichment, in line with Israel and the US, which could derail talks. 

Historical bullets

EQUITIES: Some attention on the US Cash Open

May-21 13:27

Some attention on the US Cash Equity Open, given some of the earlier selling in Futures, US Yields are also elevated Today, once again led by the longer end.

  • Calls: SPX: 5,898.5 (-0.7%); DJIA: 42,253 (-1.0%/-424pts); NDX: 21,216.7 (-0.7%).

BONDS: Gilt/Bunds Set To Close Above 210bp

May-21 13:16

The 10-Year gilt/Bund spread is set to close above 210bp for the first time since April 22.

  • Relative betas to U.S. Tsys, hawkish BoE developments and this morning’s firmer-than-expected UK CPI data explaining much of the ~15bp of widening seen since May 6.
  • Downtrend resistance drawn off the Dec ’24 closing highs comes in at 214.3bp today, protecting the April closing high (218.8bp).
  • The UK’s delicate fiscal situation and stickier-than-expected CPI data presents widening risks to the spread, with the market less worried about the future increase in German issuance in recent weeks.

Fig. 1: UK/German 10-Year Yield Spread (bp)

GiltBunds2100525

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

FOREX: FX Exchange traded Options, all looking for USD Weakness

May-21 13:12

Few Notable FX Exchange traded Option, all looking for further USD Weakness:

  • EURUSD (3rd July) 1.1550c, bought for 0.0082 in ~1k, the Underlying is much higher than the spot at 1.1418.
  • JPYUSD (3rd July) 72.00c, bought for 0.63 in 1.9k (underlying is at 70.535).
  • CADUSD (3rd July) 73.00c, bought for 0.37 in ~4.16k (underlying is at 72.53).

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