EU CREDIT SUPPLY: €€€ Public Property Invest (PUPRIN): Dual Tranche Priced

SFIG6 96.60/96.70 call spread, bought for 1 in 8k

• Stocks reversed early Monday gains, to modestly negative territory in the first half, risk sentiment limited ahead of tomorrow's heavy economic data schedule that includes Non-Farm Payrolls for November.
• Currently, the DJIA trades down 61.18 points (-0.13%) at 48404.01, S&P E-Mini Future down 9.75 points (-0.14%) at 6882.5, Nasdaq down 99.3 points (-0.4%) at 23101.13.
• A mix of Information Technology, Financial and Materials sector shares led declines in the first half: ServiceNow Inc -10.50%, CoStar Group -7.52%, Coinbase Global -5.25%, Broadcom -4.47%, Oracle -4.45%, LyondellBasell Industries -4.24%, Axon Enterprise -3.39% and Dow Inc -3.32%.
• On the positive side, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sector shares led first half advances:
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb +2.84%, Eli Lilly +2.57%, AbbVie +2.12%, Intuitive Surgical +2.12% and Abbott Laboratories +1.90%.
  • Tesla +3.30%, Booking Holdings +2.24%, Expedia Group +2.16%, Royal Caribbean Cruises +2.13% and Las Vegas Sands +2.00%.

In a speech called "Resilience", NY Fed President Williams - a dovish-leaning, permanent FOMC voter - says that after the Fed's latest cuts, "monetary policy is well positioned as we head into 2026." LINK

• Williams of course reignited December rate cut pricing in a speech he gave in November signalling unusually clearly that he saw room for a further cut in the "near term". Here he reverts to his usual communications approach, not revealing much about his rate preferences and in any case not signaling support for a follow-up cut in January.
• His economic forecasts are basically in line with the FOMC medians, particularly for inflation and unemployment, suggesting that he's probably in line or if anything slightly below the overall December FOMC median projections for rates (which were 3.4% end-2026, 3.1% end-2027, so one cut in each year). That, combined with his "well-positioned" comment and the title of his speech, suggests that he sees a slower pace of cuts ahead after 3 consecutive reductions.
• While the economy has "shown considerable resilience and looks poised to pick up steam next year", "the labor market has continued to cool, with labor demand softening more than supply" albeit "I should emphasize that this has been an ongoing, gradual process, without signs of a sharp rise in layoffs or other indications of rapid deterioration."
• He forecasts GDP growth of 2.25% in 2026 (1.5% for 2025; FOMC December medians were 2.3% and 1.7% respectively), with the unemployment rate rising to "around" 4.5% for end-2025 (in line with the FOMC median) which he says partly reflects government shutdown effects. And then alongside above-potential growth, Williams expects unemployment "to gradually come down over the next few years", again in line with the FOMC medians.
• On inflation, "the effects of trade policies have boosted inflation this year, but these effects have been more muted and drawn out than I originally anticipated...I do not see any signs of tariffs contributing to second-round or other spillover effects on inflation...inflation expectations remain well anchored."
• He pencils in "just under" 2.5% PCE inflation in 2026, reaching the 2% target in 2027 (basically exactly in line with the latest FOMC medians: 2.4%, 2.1% 2027).