EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 162.89 High Sep 2 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 160.89 High Sep 4
- RES 2: 160.18 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 158.64 High Sep 10
- PRICE: 157.06 @ 16:40 BST Sep 12
- SUP 1: 155.46 Low Sep 11
- SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 154.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is trading closer to its recent lows, as the bear cycle that started mid-August remains in play. All key retracement points of the rally between Aug 5 - 15, have been cleared and this exposes the key support and bear trigger at 154.42, the Aug 5 low. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 160.18, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
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USDJPY TECHS: Oversold Condition Unwinds
- RES 4: 153.93 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 150.73 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 149.77 High Aug 2
- RES 1: 148.22 High Aug 12
- PRICE: 147.06 @ 16:08 BST Aug 13
- SUP 1: 144.29 Low Aug 7
- SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
- SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28
USDJPY remains bearish and the recent impulsive sell-off has strengthened the trend condition. The move down signals scope for an extension towards the next key support at 140.25, Dec 28 ‘23 low. Note that the bear cycle remains in an extreme oversold condition, and the latest recovery - a correction - is allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 150.73, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 141.70, the Aug 5 low.
BOSTIC: HAVE TO REMAIN SURE UNEMPLOYMENT RISE IS DUE TO SUPPLY
- BOSTIC: HAVE TO REMAIN SURE UNEMPLOYMENT RISE IS DUE TO SUPPLY
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Rate Cut Hedging Rises
SOFR and Treasury option trade remained mixed on net Tuesday, two-way put and a pick-up in call sales in the former, while Treasury options saw a pick-up in outright call and vol selling as underlying futures hold moderately higher in late trade, curves bull steepening ahead Wednesday morning's CPI data. Projected rate cut pricing into year end continues to gain vs. this morning's levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -40.1bp (-39.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -73.8bp (-69.8bp), Dec'24 -107.4bp (-101.4bp).
- SOFR Options:
- +5,000 SFRH5 96.25/96.50 call spds vs 2QH5 97.25/97.50 call spds, 2.5 net
- -10,000 SFRM5 96.75/97.25 call spds v 2QM5 97.12/97.62 call spds, .25 net
- -8,000 SFRZ4 95.06/95.12 put spds, 0.25 net
- +6,000 SFRX4 95.25 puts 2.0 vs. 95.78/0.09%
- +3,000 SFRH5 96.12/97.00 2x3 call spds 37.0 ref 96.265
- +6,000 SFRU4 95.12/95.18/95.25/95.31 call condors, 1.25 vs. 95.165/0.04%
- 1,350 SFRZ4 95.50/95.56/95.62/95.68 put condors ref 95.79
- +10,000 SFRV4 95.25/95.37 2x1 put spds w/ SFRZ4 95.12/95.25/95.37 put tree, 1.5 ref 95.775
- Block, 3,000 SFRU4 95.00/95.12/95.25 put trees, 6.0 ref 95.13
- 2,000 SFRU4 95.00/95.06/95.12 put flys ref 95.135
- 1,250 SFRU4 94.93/95.00/95.06 put flys ref 95.135
- Update, total +12,000 SFRH5 95.50/95.75/95.87/96.12 put condors, 6.0 ref 96.195
- 2,000 SFRV4 95.31/95.43/95.56 put flys ref 95.745
- +5,000 SFRU4 94.87/95.00 put spds, 1.75
- 2,150 SFRU4 94.75/94.81/94.93 2x3x1 broken put flys ref 95.13
- 2,000 SFRZ4 95.75/96.00/96.25 call trees
- 2,500 SFRZ4 96.25/96.75 call spds ref 95.735
- Treasury Options:
- -10,000 TYX4 112/117 call over risk reversals 0.0 vs. 114-06.5/0.50%
- -6,000 TYU4 113.75 calls, 28 ref 113-16/0.44%
- 3,000 FVU4 110/111 call spds, 6 ref 109-05.25
- -5,000 TYV4 112/117 strangles, 36 ref 113-28
- +5,000 5,000 TYV4 116.5 calls, 18 ref 113-23
- 7,000 wk3 TY 113.25/113.75 call spds vs. 112.5 put, 4 net ref 113-06
- 1,200 FVU4 110 calls vs. 107/108 put spds ref 108-29
- 3,000 Wednesday weekly TY 113.25/113.75/114.25 call flys, exp tomorrow
- 4,000 TYU4 114/114.25/114.5 call flys, ref 113-07.5 to -17
