STIR: Euribor Futures Look Through Trump Tariff Threats and UK CPI Data
Euribor futures have been happy to look through US President Trump’s latest tariff threats, now flat to -2.0 ticks through the blues. There was limited impact from the mixed UK CPI data.
- Desks note that early Euribor flow is likely a liquidation: ERM5 97.9375c, sold at 4.75 in 10k (ref 97.825)
- ECB-dated OIS price 76bps of easing through year-end
- At yesterday’s MNI event, ECB’s Cipollone cemented his status as one of the more dovish members of the Executive Board. He said that rate cuts should take into account the tightening impact of QT, while expressing worries about the growth outlook and the risk of China exporting disinflation to the Eurozone in response to US tariffs.
- ECB dove Panetta has expressed similar concerns around the growth outlook in comments this morning.
- Today’s regional calendar includes Eurozone December current account data, alongside preliminary Q4 labour cost and vacancy data.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.428 | -23.9 |
| Apr-25 | 2.273 | -39.3 |
| Jun-25 | 2.104 | -56.2 |
| Jul-25 | 2.046 | -62.0 |
| Sep-25 | 1.968 | -69.8 |
| Oct-25 | 1.946 | -72.0 |
| Dec-25 | 1.909 | -75.7 |
| Feb-26 | 1.908 | -75.8 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
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SONIA: Call spread buyer
SFIH5 95.70/95.80cs, bought for 1.25 in 5k.
USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.4671 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4486 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.4449 @ 08:04 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 1.4364/4302 20-day EMA / Low Jan 15
- SUP 2: 1.4280 Low Jan 6
- SUP 3: 1.4226 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
The trend in USDCAD remains bullish and recent short-term weakness has proved to be corrective. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Friday’s gains expose 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4364, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 1.4226, the 50-day EMA.
EFSF ISSUANCE: New 3-year / new 10-year: Books open
New long 3-year:
- Maturity: 27 July 2028
- Coupon: Short 1st
- Guidance: MS + 21 bps area
- Size: EUR Benchmark (MNI expects E3-5bln)
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAR0
New 10-year:
- Maturity: 29 January 2035
- Coupon: Long first
- Guidance: MS + 53 bps area
- Size: EUR Benchmark (MNI expects E3-5bln)
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAS8
For both:
- Total size: MNI expects E7-8bln
- Settlement: 27 January 2025 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: BARCLAYS / BNP / JPM (DM/B&D)
- Timing: Books open, today's business
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