STIR: Euribor Futures A Little Firmer Ahead of ECB Decision, Heavy Data Calendar
Euribor futures are flat to +2.0 ticks through the blues, with the hawkish initial reaction to the Fed’s policy statement yesterday evening pared after Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. French Q4 flash GDP was also softer-than-expected at -0.1% Q/Q (vs 0.0% cons, 0.4% prior) earlier.
- ECB-dated OIS price 91bps of easing through year-end, with a 25bp cut at today’s decision fully priced. With no changes in key guidance expected, we expect commentary around US policy spillovers to set the tone for the press conference. See MNI’s preview here.
- Several important data points are also due today (Eurozone flash Q4 GDP, Spanish flash inflation, EC sentiment survey).
- MNI’s Eurozone flash inflation preview was released yesterday, see here.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jan-25 | 2.674 | -24.9 |
| Mar-25 | 2.455 | -46.8 |
| Apr-25 | 2.334 | -58.9 |
| Jun-25 | 2.185 | -73.8 |
| Jul-25 | 2.136 | -78.7 |
| Sep-25 | 2.063 | -86.0 |
| Oct-25 | 2.044 | -87.9 |
| Dec-25 | 2.011 | -91.2 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
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AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6435 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 0.6274/6313 Low Dec 20 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6224 @ 07:50 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6313, the 20-day EMA.
USD: The Dollar is King to end the Year
- The Dollar is mixed against G10 going into the last day of the Year, the Yen is up 0.35% and at the other end of the spectrum the Kiwi is down 0.28% at least for Today.
- Overall the Dollar is king going into 2025, acted as a safer haven throughout the Year, and has also been supported as Desks look for Less cuts from the Fed with Donald Trump on the cusp of taking over the Presidency.
- The biggest loser in G10 YTD is the Kiwi, down some 10.9% for that period, NZDUSD printed a 0.5608 low in December, which was its lowest printed level since October 2022.
- For today, 0.5620 is holding, and market participants will be looking for initial support at 0.5600.
- The NOK is the 2nd worst performer, down 10.26%, printed its lowest level in December since March 2020.
- Main upside Psychological level is still at 11.50 in USDNOK, managed a 11.4769 high on the 20th December.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bear Threat
- RES 4: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
- RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 1: 6014.44/6107.50 50-day EMA / High Dec 26
- PRICE: 5957.00 @ 07:22 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: 5918.25/5866.00 Low Dec 30 / 20
- SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and the latest move down highlights the end of the recent Dec 20 - 26 corrective bounce. An extension lower would expose 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. A break of this level is required to open key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
