EGBs and Gilts weakened Wednesday, with bear steepening in the German and UK curves.
- Core yields had gapped higher to start the day on positive trade news (US-China, US-Japan developments) and a poor 40-year Japanese bond auction, but were broadly flat/lower over the course of the session as concerns lingered over EU countermeasures against proposed US tariffs.
- That seemingly set yields on course to rise modestly for the day, with slight bear steepening. But there was a late twist when just before the cash close, the Financial Times reported that the EU and US were close to reaching a trade deal (including 15% tariffs on US imports from the EU) which would stave off a harsher regime being imposed from Aug 1.
- That news saw core EGB and Gilt yields spike to their highest levels of the day into the close, and judging from futures would have headed higher yet.
- The bear steepening move in the German and UK curves was reinforced, with Gilts underperforming on the day.
- As we noted in our latest Europe Pi update (PDF Here), longs have been building going into the ECB decision which may have helped exacerbate the move.
- Periphery/semi-core spreads tightened smartly into the close as well, leaving them tighter on the day led by Spain and Portugal.
- Thursday's calendar highlights are July flash PMIs and of course the ECB decision.
- MNI's ECB preview is here - we will be closely watching Lagarde's characterisation of risks at the press conference, which will likely shape the market reaction.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 3.2bps at 1.844%, 5-Yr is up 4.2bps at 2.194%, 10-Yr is up 4.9bps at 2.639%, and 30-Yr is up 5.6bps at 3.173%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 3.9bps at 3.881%, 5-Yr is up 4.7bps at 4.044%, 10-Yr is up 6.6bps at 4.635%, and 30-Yr is up 8.2bps at 5.482%.
- Italian BTP spread down 2.1bps at 82.3bps / Spanish down 2.5bps at 58.9bps