HUF: EURHUF Turns Higher, Back Towards 400
CE3 currencies are weaker on Thursday, despite EURUSD steadying around the 1.08 mark and European equities extending moderately higher. EURHUF is close to 0.4% higher at typing, above Wednesday’s highs and re-approaching the 400.00 mark. Initial resistance is seen at 401.09, the 20-day EMA.
- Weak IP data may be providing a moderate headwind to the forint after data showed an 11th consecutive month of contraction for the annual series, though retail sales surged more than expected, potentially offsetting some of the negative growth implications.
- There is no clear driver behind broader weakness across CE3 FX, though markets will be awaiting any potential headlines from the EU leaders summit being held in Brussels today. Prompted by President Trump’s decision to distance the US from Europe’s security, leaders will look at fresh ways to fund defence and rearm.
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US TSY/RECAP: Kion Headines
"*KION SEES 2025 FCF, NET INCOME SHORT OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS" - BBG
SWEDEN: Jan Meeting Minutes: Risks Still Tilted Towards More Easing
The January meeting minutes suggest the Executive Board is happy with the current level of rates for now, as they assess the impact of past easing and look for more certainty around the international trade outlook. Governor Thedeen embodied this view most clearly, in our view. However, comments from other members suggest risks are clearly still tilted towards more easing.
- Deputy Governor Breman noted that “the probability of the next step being a further rate cut is greater than the next step being a rate hike”, while Bunge still questioned whether monetary policy is “too contractionary” at current levels.
- Although Deputy Governor Seim generally considers current rates to be at appropriate levels, she still highlighted that the Riksbank is prepared to cut rates further, in the event the economy doesn’t recover as expected.
- On inflation, there continues to be broad-based confidence in the outlook. Deputy Governor Jansson and Governor Thedeen highlighted recent increases in producer prices as a risk to monitor, but that these developments do not yet change the assessment of monetary policy.
- Recent upturns in growth indicators were widely flagged, but the Board still needs evidence to confirm activity is picking up. Deputy Governor Bunge pointed towards the Riksbank’s Q1 Business Survey as an important release ahead of the March decision.
- Of course, concerns around US tariffs remain prevalent, but discussions around possible policy responses were limited, with uncertainty still clouding the outlook.
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note:
EURUSD 2.26bn at 1.0300/1.0320.
AUDUSD 1.6bn at 0.6275 (a bit far).
EURUSD 1.04bn at 1.0300(wed).
EURUSD 2.99bn at 1.0300/1.0320 (thu).
GBPUSD 1.24bn at 1.2455 (thu).
EURUSD 1.51bn at 1.0400 (mon).
USDJPY 1.94bn at 154.00 (mon).
USDCAD 1.13bn at 1.4425 (mon).
- EURUSD: 1.0250 (1.08bn), 1.0265 (470mln), 1.0280 (910mln), 1.0300 (1.25bn), 1.0320 (1.01bn), 1.0325 (200mln), 1.0375 (1.04bn), 1.0395 (300mln), 1.0400 (921mln).
- USDJPY: 154.00 (661mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6275 (1.6bn).
