HUF: EURHUF Nears September's Cycle Lows as US Government Shutdown Begins
Oct-01 08:46
- Ongoing greenback weakness as the US government shutdown begins has benefited emerging market currencies. The stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI figure for Hungary in September (51.5 vs. 49.2 expected) will be providing an additional forint tailwind, with the local currency currently outperforming its CEE peers (PLNHUF: -0.05%; CZKHUF: -0.10%).
- EURHUF is now nearly 1% lower compared to last week’s highs, and within close proximity to the September low of 387.92. A break of this level would put spot at a fresh 15-month low. In terms of technical levels, we flag 386.70, the 1.236 projection of the Jan 7 - Mar 21 - Apr 14 price swing, and 383.84, the 1.382 projection, as supports to watch. Key resistance is at 393.92, the 50-day EMA.
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STIR: Danske Recommend Paying June '26 Vs. Dec '25 & Dec '26 ECB On Fly
Sep-01 08:39
Danske Bank recommend tactically paying the June ‘26 ECB meeting vs. receiving the Dec ‘25 and Dec ‘26 meetings on an ECB-dated OIS fly structure.
- They note that their “baseline is for the pricing of additional rate cuts from the ECB to move closer to zero as the economy has proven surprisingly resilient and downside risks to the outlook have faded. However, the prospects of inflation moving below 2% and wage indicators remaining soft also dampen the likelihood of the ECB kicking off rate hikes in late ‘26”.
MNI: UK AUG MANUF PMI 47.0 (47.3 FLASH, 48.0 JUL)
Sep-01 08:30
- MNI: UK AUG MANUF PMI 47.0 (47.3 FLASH, 48.0 JUL)
MNI: UK JUL M4 MONEY SUPPLY +0.1% M/M, +2.9% Y/Y
Sep-01 08:30
- MNI: UK JUL M4 MONEY SUPPLY +0.1% M/M, +2.9% Y/Y
