HUF: EURHUF Extends Losing Streak, Narrows Gap to December’s Cycle Lows
Jan-02 08:58
- EURHUF (-0.2%) has started the year on the back foot, with the cross extending its recent losing streak to six consecutive sessions. Spot has reversed the late-December rally which was inspired by the dovish-tilting NBH, with price now just <1% above key support at 380.25, the Dec 3 low.
- A break of this level would put the cross at a 2-year low, signalling a reversal of the recent bullish theme. EURHUF is also back below the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Note that local markets remain shut today, which will likely keep liquidity thin until markets re-open as usual on Monday.
- Following last month's rate-setting meeting, sell-side analysts started to coalesce around the idea of a rate cut in Q1-2026. The central bank emphasised repricing effects at the start of the year as a crucial factor, increasing the significance of the January inflation print and therefore the February rate-setting meeting. However, the Bank may instead choose to wait until the March meeting to deliver a rate cut in order to coincide with the release of its next inflation report.
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CROSS ASSET: Pullback In Front End Of Gilt Curve Supports GBP
Dec-03 08:57
Front end of the gilt curve continues to lead the fade from early session highs, lending support to GBP. No clear headline drivers.
MNI: GERMANY NOV FINAL SERV PMI 53.1 (52.7 FLASH, 54.6 OCT)
Dec-03 08:55
- MNI: GERMANY NOV FINAL SERV PMI 53.1 (52.7 FLASH, 54.6 OCT)
ITALY DATA: Services PMI highest for 2 and a half years
Dec-03 08:51
A strong Italian services PMI (in contrast to the weaker-than-expected Spanish number earlier), with the press release noting that this is the highest print for 2 and a half years. Other highlights from the npress release:
- "The improvement in total new order intakes was domestic-led, as export business returned to contraction in November following a month of growth."
- "Amid reports of higher energy, maintenance, administrative and raw material costs, service providers indicated another increase in their operating expenses... A number of companies also reported higher wage bills."
- "Companies opted to raise their charges in an attempt to recover increased cost burdens, at least partially. Although the rate of selling price inflation was moderate, it reached a four-month high and contrasted with the long-run trend of discounting."
