HUF: EURHUF Bear Cycle Remains in Play as Focus Shifts to NBH

Jun-20 10:33

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EURHUF had fallen 0.2% earlier in the session, extending the decline from the week's highs to around...

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LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: Fed Speakers, Bills & Bond Sales

May-21 10:28
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • 21-May 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (1.1%, --)
  • 21-May 1130 US Tsy $60B 17W bill auction
  • 21-May 1215 Richmond Fed Barkin, Fed Gov Bowman Fed listens event
  • 21-May 1300 US Tsy $16B 20Y Bond sale (912810UL0)

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Bear Threat Still Present

May-21 10:22
  • RES 4: 112-20+ High May 1 and a bull trigger  
  • RES 3: 112-01+ High May 2  
  • RES 2: 111-22   High May 7 and a key near-term resistance 
  • RES 1: 110-24+ 50-day EMA
  • PRICE:‌‌ 109-27+ @ 11:12 BST May 21
  • SUP 1: 109-18+ Low May 15  
  • SUP 2: 109-08   Low Apr 11 and key support
  • SUP 3: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
  • SUP 4: 108-21   Low Feb 19  

Treasury futures are trading lower today and maintain a bearish tone. The recent breach of 110-01+, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 1 bull leg, strengthens a bearish theme and exposes key support at 109-08, Apr 24 low and a bear trigger. Key near-term resistance is at 111-22, the May 7 high. A move above this level is required to signal a potential reversal. First resistance is at 110-24+, the 50-day EMA.

CROSS ASSET: Risk Off prevails, US 30yr Yield remains above 5%

May-21 10:22
  • As noted on the Bund Open, US Yields level remain a deep concern for investors, higher US rates impact the cost of service its debt, the Tax plan is expected to raise Debt and its Deficit.
  • Pointed to the US Emini on the European Open and potential for some fade back down to 5867.25 and the 5789.06 area.
  • Higher Yield combined with the Risk Off was the cause for the Tariffs delay back in April.
ESM5 Index (S&P500 EMINI FUT  Ju 2025-05-21 11-18-36