EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle Highlights A Reversal Threat
- RES 4: 0.8523 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8367/0.8448 50-day EMA / High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.8351 High Nov 15
- PRICE: 0.8349 @ 16:36 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: 0.8260 Low Nov 11
- SUP 2: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 4: 0.8200 Round number support
EURGBP remains above Tuesday’s low. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective, however, Tuesday's price pattern is a possible bullish engulfing candle - a reversal signal. A clear breach of the 20-day EMA, at 0.8338, would strengthen a reversal threat. For bears, the cross has recently breached 0.8295, the Oct 18 low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 0.8250, the Apr 14 2022 low.
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EURJPY TECHS: Medium-Term Trend Set-Up Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 163.89 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 163.61 High Oct 10
- PRICE: 162.78 @ 17:02 BST Oct 16
- SUP 1: 161.62 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 158.11/155.15 Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY continues to trade inside its recent range. A medium-term bearish trend condition remains intact and the recovery since early August appears to be corrective. A reversal lower and a resumption of bearish price action would open 158.11, the Sep 30 low, and the first important support. Key resistance is at 163.49, the Sep 27 high (pierced), and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. Clearance of both levels is required to highlight a potential reversal.
COMMODITIES: Spot Gold, Copper Gain, Crude Rangebound
- Spot gold is up by a further 0.5% to $2,675/oz, having traded within a whisker of the all-time high of $2,685.6 earlier in the session.
- The trend condition in gold remains bullish, with sights still on $2,690.2, a Fibonacci projection.
- Copper prices have rebounded moderately today, with the red metal rising by 0.8% to $437/lb.
- Despite this, copper futures remain in a short-term retracement mode and traded below the 50-day EMA, at $436.82, earlier.
- A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $415.93, a Fibonacci retracement point.
- Crude markets are ending the day rangebound as the market continues to monitor the situation in the Middle East and the outlook for demand in 2025.
- WTI Nov 24 is down 0.1% at $70.5/bbl.
- For WTI futures, an extension lower would threaten the recent bullish theme and expose support at $66.33, the Oct 1 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at $78.46, the Oct 8 high.
- Meanwhile, Henry Hub front month has sunk to its lowest level since Sep 20, continuing a downward trend which started Oct 4. Milder weather forecasts for the last week of October have added downward pressure.
- US Natgas Nov 24 is down 5.3% at $2.37/mmbtu.
USDJPY TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 153.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.94 Low Jul 25
- RES 2: 150.76 50.0% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 149.98 High Oct 14
- PRICE: 149.72 @ 16:59 BST Oct 16
- SUP 1: 148.30/146.82 Low Oct 8 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 143.43/141.65 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 30
- SUP 3: 140.45 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 139.58 Low Sep 16 and the bear trigger
USDJPY traded firmer into the Wednesday close and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The pair is holding on to its recent gains. The latest rally resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA, a bullish development that undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 150.76, the 50% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 146.82, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal.
