FOREX: EURGBP Highest Since Nov 2023, USD Firms Ahead of Key Data

• US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 3.879%; ALLOTMENT 6.32%
• US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 10.88% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 24.44% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 64.68% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 5Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.36

• RES 4: 1.1783 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1685 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 downleg
• RES 1: 1.1641 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 1.1625 @ 16:24 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 1.1472 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1332/1.1210 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 29
• SUP 3: 1.1131 Low May 16 
• SUP 4: 1.1065 Low May 12 and a reversal trigger 

The trend set-up in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish. Resistance and a bull trigger at 1.1631, the Jun 12 high,  has been pierced confirming a resumption of the trend. This opens 1.1685, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support to watch lies at 1.1472, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement that would expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.1332.

Wednesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

• ERQ5 98.1875/98.3125/98.4375 call fly 8K sold down to 1
• ERZ5 98.25c vs 2RZ5 98.0625c, bought the front for -1 in 15k
• ERZ5 98.125/98.25/98.375c fly x2 with ERZ5 98.375/98.50/98.625c fly vs 0RV5 98.0625p x1, bought the Flies strip for -0.5 in 8k
• ERZ5 98.375/98.50/98.625 call fly paper paid 1.5 on 5K.
• ERH6 98.125/98.25/98.50/98.625 c condor vs 97.9375p, bought for 1 in 5k
• SFIU5 95.90/96.00/96.15/96.25c condor, sold at 6.25 in 10.5k
• SFIU5 96.20/96.40 1x2 call spread paper paid 1.25 on 3K
• SFIX5 96.60/96.70cs, bought for 1.5 in 8k
• SFIZ5 96.10/96.25/96.40/96.55c condor, bought for 6 up to 6.25 in 30k