BONDS: EUREX ROLLS
Aug-28 13:25
- Still a little early for Eurex Roll, but Schatz tends to lead the pace, which looks to be the case today.
- An hour ago saw 12k total trading on legs (4x 4k block trades).
- The spread has so far traded for ~39k outright spread today, and is being sold.
MS Eurex spread views:
- Buxl: Neutral.
- Bund: Neutral.
- Bobl: Neutral.
- Schatz: Bearish.
- BTP: Slightly bearish.
- OAT: Slightly bearish.
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SOY TECHS: (X4) Southbound
Jul-29 13:23
- RES 4: $1270.25 - High Dec 28
- RES 3: $1230.50 - High May 7 and key resistance
- RES 2: $1201.50 - High May 31
- RES 1: $1112.44/1133.75 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
- PRICE: $1027.25 @ 13:44 BST Jul 29
- SUP 1: $1025.25 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $1011.81 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: $1000.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $990.44 - 1.236 proj of Nov 21 ‘23 - Feb 26 - Jun 7 swing
Soybean futures remain in a downtrend and recent weakness confirmed a resumption of the medium-term bear cycle. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up too and this continues to highlight a clear bearish trend sequence. Scope is seen for a move towards the $1000.00 psychological handle. Initial firm resistance is $1112.44, the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
EQUITIES: Estoxx Synth Option trade
Jul-29 13:11
SX5E (19/12/25) 4900, bought the call for 37.5 in 8k (100% del).
CANADA: Politics Week: Focus Remains On Trudeau Leadership Questions
Jul-29 13:04
- Sample headlines: The Trudeau Show is on summer hiatus (Globe and Mail); 'A caucus sleepwalking to its death': Liberals show little interest in following U.S. Democrats' upheaval (National Post); Joe Biden was compelled to stand down — could Trudeau go next? (CBC).
- Trudeau has been mostly quiet over the past week, taking a holiday in British Columbia.
- Nanos poll shows little voter enthusiasm for other potential Liberal leadership candidates.
- Polling aggregator 338Canada shows Conservatives likely to win majority government if an election were held now. Election is due in late 2025 under traditional four-year mandate.
- Canada on July 2 opened a 30-day public consultation around setting tariffs on Chinese EVs and other investment restrictions.
