CZK: EUR/CZK Tests 50-DMA To Downside After Wednesday's Break Above There
EUR/CZK closed above its 50-DMA for the first time since April 22 yesterday, after rejecting resistance from this moving average on multiple occasions over the recent months. The pair has been correcting yesterday's upswing this morning but the resistance-turned-support from the 50-DMA holds firm at 24.353. When this is being typed, EUR/CZK trades -0.015 at 24.358 and a return below the aforementioned moving average would turn the focus to cyclical lows around the 24.2 mark again. On the topside, bulls look for a resumption of gains toward the 100-DMA, which kicks in at 24.491.
- Market participants are on the lookout for any final comments from Bank Board members before the CNB enters its media blackout period at 14:00GMT/15:00CET. The central bank is universally expected to keep the two-week repo rate unchanged next week as inflationary risks continue to linger.
- The incoming three-party coalition agreed on a joint policy agenda and will unveil it on Monday. It will also nominate Tomio Okamura to become Chamber of Deputies Speaker.
- The Czech economy expanded by 2.7% Y/Y in 3Q25, according to advance data released this morning, which beat market consensus by a comfortable margin.
- CZGB yields have ticked away from session highs but remain above neutral levels, curve runs a tad steeper. The PX Index operates 0.4% higher on the day.
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EGB FLOWS: A lot of activity in Block trades
A lot of activity in EGB Block trade, more than usual:
- RXZ5 ~2.91k at 128.60.
- UBZ5 ~1.28k at 114.50.
- IKZ5 950 at 119.87.
- IKZ5 518 at 119.84.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Monitoring Support In USDJPY
- In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. Attention is on support at 1.1682. the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.1574 initially, the Aug 27 low. For bulls, a clear resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.1923, a 2.0 projection of Feb 28 - Mar 18-27 swing. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.1820, the Sep 23 high.
- The bear cycle in GBPUSD that started Sep 17, remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 1.3491, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. This undermines a recent bullish theme. Note too that 1.3333, the Sep 3 low and a key support, has been pierced, opening 1.3282 next, the Aug 6 low. Initial key resistance to watch is 1.3537, the Sep 23 high. A break of this hurdle would signal a reversal.
- USDJPY has pulled back from last week’s high print. The move down - for now - appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch lies at 147.59, the 50-day EMA. Pivot support has been defined at 145.49, the Sep 17 low. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 150.92, the Aug 1 high.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 112-23/113-00 20-day EMA / High Sep 24
- PRICE: 112-20 @ 11:15 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 112-01 50.0% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase
- SUP 2: 111-26 Low Aug 26
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 111-01+ 76.4% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase
A short-term bear cycle in Treasury futures remains in play. Last Thursday’s sell-off resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA, currently at 112-10+. A clear break of this average would undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and the next key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 113-00, the Sep 24 high.
