CZK: EURCZK Dips to New Session Low Following Rate Decision

• +4,200 UXYM5 112/113 put spds, 9 last few minutes

Late on Friday Goldman Sachs noted that the extent of last week’s vol. “richening was in line with behaviour around prior tariff announcements, featuring higher vol. levels across the surface and a flattening in both the tail and expiry curves”.

• They suggest that “with increased recession fears opening up the distribution around the front-end more substantially, this appears consistent with the tendency for shorter tenor vol. to respond positively in rate rallies”.
• Going forwards they think “vol. levels can stay elevated as long as growth uncertainty lingers, with gamma richening the typical pattern observed around prior growth slowdown or recessionary episodes. And with implied-to-delivered ratios generally on the lower side of the past two years’ range, there remains scope for vol. premium to build”.

• Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.35% (-0.04), volume: $2.587T
• Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.33% (-0.04), volume: $1.005T
• Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.33% (-0.03), volume: $968B
• (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)