FOREX: EUR Undermined by Jolt in Turkish Political Uncertainty
Mar-19 09:26
- The greenback is rallying against all others in early Wednesday trade - firmer on the back of the political uncertainty stemming from Turkey. Local police have detained the Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu and presumed primary opposition to Erdogan at the 2028 President election, prompting a sharp spell of weakness for the Turkish currency and local equities. Given Turkey's close proximity to the global security picture, and key influence over the Russia-Ukraine conflict, markets more broadly are reacting, putting the USD higher and AUD, NZD lower.
- The BoJ decision noted some unease over the outlook for tariffs at their unchanged rate decision overnight - but importantly Ueda stressed that the BoJ won't be rushed into raising rates - with the risk of falling behind the curve not very high at this stage.
- EUR/USD slippage picked up to press EUR/USD to 1.0874 on the Turkish newsflow, and while much of that decline has been reversed into the NY crossover, the price action goes to show that the pair can swiftly suffer from intraday reversals on the right newsflow - despite the underlying bull trend in the pair.
- The Fed decision ahead takes focus next, and while the FOMC are not expected to take policy action today, the SEP and divergence of views over the trajectory of the economy will be key to any market reaction. ECB speakers today include de Guindos, Villeroy and Elderson.
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FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Feb-17 09:08
Of note:
EURUSD 3.63bn at 1.0500 (could act as magnet).
USDJPY 1.59bn at 152.00/152.25.
EURUSD 1.52bn at 1.0500 (wed).
USDCNY 1.43bn at 7.2500 (thu).
- EURUSD: 1.0400 (331mln), 1.0425 (275mln), 1.0500 (3.63bn).
- USDJPY: 151.50 (450mln), 152.00 (545mln), 152.05 (630mln), 152.25 (410mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6300 (473mln).
SLOVAKIA: Coalition Leaders Meet As Fico's Ultimatum To Resolve Crisis Expires
Feb-17 09:00
The leaders of Slovakia's coalition parties Smer, Hlas and SNS will meet around lunchtime today in a bid to defuse the prolonged crisis within the governing camp, as its parliamentary majority hangs in balance and Prime Minister Robert Fico's ultimatum to resolve the situation is about to expire.
- Pravda reported that the coalition can probably count on the support of 76 lawmakers in the 150-seat unicameral parliament after striking a deal with a group of four non-aligned deputies, but would like to improve its position and secure the support of 79 deputies. This could be achieved through a truce with three Hlas rebels, with no clear plan on how to persuade them at the moment.
- Labor, Social Affairs and Family Mnister Erik Tomas (Hlas) told TA3 that "the Prime Minister informed us that if no agreement is reached, the Smer party is ready to support a snap election," possibly in June. However, Hlas remains opposed to this option and hopes that the negotiations today will help make progress in addressing the ongoing political crisis. Calling a snap election would require the support of at least 90 MPs.
- Fico had earlier warned that a failure to reach agreement with Hlas rebels and stabilise the government by February 17 would prompt him to "propose several changes to the government to the President on the same day". President Peter Pellegrini subsequently clarified that he would not immediately sign off on any such proposals, although local political analysts believe that the two leaders would probably quickly agree on the structure of a possible reshuffle.
RATINGS: Austria Outlook Moved To Stable From Positive By S&P On Friday
Feb-17 08:56
Rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
- Fitch affirmed Czech Republic at AA-; Outlook Stable.
- Moody's affirmed Switzerland at Aaa; Outlook Stable.
- S&P affirmed Austria at AA+; Outlook revised to Stable from Positive.
- Morningstar DBRS confirmed Latvia at A; Stable Trend.
- Ireland saw unchanged ratings action from Moody’s (current rating: Aa3; Outlook Positive) and Scope Ratings (current rating: AA; Outlook Stable), following periodic monitoring reviews.
- Sweden saw unchanged ratings action from Scope Ratings (current rating: AAA; Outlook Stable) following a periodic monitoring review.
