CREDIT PRE-MARKET: EUR Market Wrap
- 2y/10y bunds closed -7bp/-4bp as core EGBs strengthened for the 4th consecutive session. with a softer-than-expected US employment report driving significant intraday volatility. WoW move stands at -16bp/-13bp.
- Main/XO ended +1bp/+4bp at 56.3bp/305bp (+3.7bp/+17bp WoW) while €IG was +0.2bp (Corps +0.4bp, Fins +0.1bp) and €HY was +4bp. €IG/€HY WoW moves were +1.4bp/+1bp with IG Fins (+0.4bp) outperforming Corps (+2.1bp) and three Corps sectors over 3bp wider (Cyc, Energy, Utils). $IG/$HY underperformed WoW at +5.2bp/+25bp.
- SXXP ended -1.1% while SPX was -1.7% for WoW moves of -3.5%/-4.2%. Notable €IG movers WoW included Deutsche Pfandbriefbank +15%, ICADE +21%, Tritax Eurobox +9%, Kojamo Oyj +9%, Neste -16%, ASML -16%, Albemarle -16%, Grenke -14%, Elis SA -13%.
- SX5E/SPX futures are +0.5%/+0.4%. UST futures have edged lower throughout the session, while the USD has mostly tracked higher, particularly against the safe havens. A better US equity futures tone has helped in this respect. China inflation was below expectations, with core CPI at its weakest levels since early 2021. China & HK equities have remained under pressure.
- Later the ECB’s McCaul appears and US August NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations and July consumer credit print.
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USDCAD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.4048 High May 22 2020
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022
- RES 1: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5
- PRICE: 1.3729 @ 16:36 BST Aug 9
- SUP 1: 1.3731/18 50-day EMA / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3657 Low Jul 17
- SUP 3: 1.3589 Low Jun 11 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and recent gains reinforce this theme. A key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high, has been cleared. This signals scope for 1.3977, the Oct 13 ‘22 high. Near-term, the pair has pulled back from Monday’s high. A move lower appears to be a correction and is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The 50-day EMA, at 1.3731, has been pierced. A clear break would expose 1.3657, the Jul 17 low.
US TSYS: Curves Twist Flatter, Rate Cuts Cool As Recession Concerns Ease
- Treasuries are mostly firmer after the bell, curves flatter (2s10s -5.920 at -11.155) with the short end underperforming on a relatively quiet end to a hectic week with no scheduled data, Fed speak or Tsy supply Friday.
- Treasury futures spiked higher early in the week as recession concerns climbed following last Friday's employment data, 10Y futures surge to 115-03.5 high Monday, 10Y yield fall to 3.6653% low.
- Markets spent the rest of the week scaling back support as recession cares cooled.
- Tsy Sep'24 10Y futures currently trade +8 at 112-29, vs. 112-21, well below technical resistance at 114-03/115-03+ (High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger).
- Projected rate cut pricing into year end were well off Monday's highs (*): Sep'24 cumulative -39.4bp (-54.3bp), Nov'24 cumulative -70.5bp (-95.9bp), Dec'24 -102.2bp (-128.1bp).
- Focus on next week's PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, Home sales data and UofM inflation expectations.
EURJPY TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 167.44 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 164.75 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 162.89 High Aug 1
- RES 1: 161.59 High Aug 2
- PRICE: 160.03 @ 16:31 BST Aug 9
- SUP 1: 157.30 / 154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5
- SUP 2: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
- SUP 3: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 ‘23
EURJPY traded sharply lower Monday marking an extension of the current impulsive bear cycle, before recovering from the session low. The move down opens the next key support at 153.23, the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A break of this price point would strengthen a bearish theme. Note that the cross remains in an extreme oversold position. A stronger recovery would allow this to unwind. Initial resistance is seen at 161.59, the Aug 2 high.
