CREDIT PRE-MARKET: EUR Market Wrap
- 2y/10y bunds closed -4bp/-6bp amid a global safe-haven bid – DM team flagged no evident single trigger for the strong afternoon rally in core FI: factors included lower oil prices (on positive Libyan supply headlines), a drop in tech stocks as the US returned from holiday, and a miss in US data (construction activity and ISM manufacturing).
- Main/XO ended +1.8bp/+8bp at 54.4bp/297bp while €IG was +0.4bp (Corps +0.7bp, Fins +0.1bp) and €HY was +5bp. All IG sectors ended the session wider with Energy nearly +2bp and with Fins the only sector holding flat WoW. $IG was +3.6bp (Corps +3.8bp, Fins +3.3bp) and $HY was +15bp
- SXXP ended -1.0% while SPX was -2.1% for MoM moves of +4.4%/+3.4%. IG movers included Molson Coors +5%, Amphenol -8%, Albemarle -7%, Warner Bros -6%, Eaton Corp -6%.
- SX5E/SPX futures are -1.3%/-0.5% after Asian equities have seen significant selling pressure today, as US equity futures broke down through Tuesday lows. Tech related indices saw the largest sell-offs. UST futures have edged slightly higher today, although we remain within Tuesday's ranges. The 10yr yield is close to 3.80%.
- Later the Fed’s Beige book is released and July JOLTS job openings, durable goods orders and trade balance print. The ECB’s Elderson speaks, European August services/composite PMIs are released and the BoC decision is announced. Friday’s US payrolls will be a focus for crude markets as they await Fed easing to support demand.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 04/09/2024 | 0700/0900 |  | EU | ECB's Elderson at Joint European Banking Authority and ECB conference | |
| 04/09/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** |  | EU | PPI |
| 04/09/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 04/09/2024 | - | *** |  | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 04/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Trade Balance |
| 04/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 04/09/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** |  | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 04/09/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** |  | CA | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |
| 04/09/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** |  | US | Factory New Orders |
| 04/09/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** |  | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 04/09/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** |  | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 04/09/2024 | 1400/1000 |  | US | MNI Connect Video Conference on the U.S. Fiscal Policy Outlook | |
| 04/09/2024 | 1430/1030 |  | CA | BOC Governor Press Conference | |
| 04/09/2024 | 1800/1400 |  | US | Fed Beige Book |
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
USDJPY TECHS: In Free Fall
- RES 4: 156.06 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 154.43 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 149.77 High Aug 2
- RES 1: 146.66 Intraday high
- PRICE: 142.71 @ 06:57 BST Aug 5
- SUP 1: 140.82 Low Jan 2
- SUP 2: 145.90 Low Feb 1
- SUP 3: 140.25 Low Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28
USDJPY remains bearish and last week’s sell-off plus today’s impulsive move lower, reinforces this condition. This paves the way for an extension towards the next key support at 140.25, the Dec 28 ‘23 low. Note that the pair is in an extreme oversold condition, however a clear reversal pattern / signal in price is required to highlight a change in direction. Initial resistance is seen at 146.66, today’s intraday high.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply - W/C 5 August, 2024
Austria and Germany both look to hold auctions in the upcoming week. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E7.4bln as issuance slows down in the summer, down from E31.9bln last week.
- Tomorrow, Austria will kick off issuance for the week by holding an RAGB auction. On offer will be a combined E1.438bln of the on-the-run 10-year 2.90% Feb-34 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A39UW5) alongside the 0% Oct-40 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A2KQ43).
- Also tomorrow, Germany will sell E4bln of the 2.50% Oct-29 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25034).
- On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1.5bln of the 2.60% May-41 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2F009) alongside E500mln of the 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598).
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bearish Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 4940.25 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 4885.77 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 4770.00 High Aug 2
- RES 1: 4656.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 4718.00 @ 10:41 BST Aug 2
- SUP 1: 4543.00 2.00 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
- SUP 2: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
- SUP 3: 4424.64 61.8% of the Oct 27 ‘23 - May 16 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 4: 4502.00 Low Jan 24 (cont)
A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the contract is trading lower today as it starts the week on a bearish note. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of 4846.00, the Apr 19 low. The breach highlights a stronger reversal and signals scope for an extension towards 4543.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is 4940.25, the 50-day EMA. First resistance is 4656.00, today’s intraday high.
