CREDIT PRE-MARKET: EUR Market Wrap
Feb-13 06:25
- 2y/10y bunds closed +5bp at 2.13%/2.48% after rates reversed some, but not all, of the initial hawkish reaction seen in the wake of the firmer-than-expected US CPI report..USTs closed +7bp/+9bp at 4.36%/4.63%.
- Main/XO ended -0.5bp/-3bp at 52.6bp/285bp while €IG was -0.9bp at 0.91% (Corps -0.9bp at 0.87%, Fins -0.9bp at 0.96%, €HY -2bp at 2.9%). $IG was -2.1bp at 0.79% (Corps -2.2bp at 0.78%, Fins -1.9bp at 0.79%, $HY -0.9bp at 2.62%).
- SX5E/SPX futures closed +0.3%/-0.3% at 5417pts/6073pts. €IG movers included Computershare (+15%), Heineken Holding (+14%), Kering (+7%), Siemens Energy (+5%), Storebrand (-9%), Westinghouse Air Brake (-9%), Randstad (-7%), Nissan Motor (-6%).
- SX5E/SPX futures are +1.1%/+0.2% this morning. Overnight team flagged that EU related assets have rallied on Ukraine peace hopes as the positive tone of the Trump/Putin discussions fuels optimism for what Trump describes as a ‘successful conclusion’ to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. UST yields are trading 1-2bps richer today, the curve has steepened slightly.
- Later the Fed’s Goolsbee appears, and US January PPI and jobless claims print as well as UK December IP, trade, construction and preliminary Q4 GDP, and euro area December IP and EC forecasts. The ECB’s Cipollone also speaks.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
Jan-14 06:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 15-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Consumer inflation report |
| 15-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Producer Prices |
| 15-Jan | 1630 | BOE's Taylor Speech on Inflation Dynamics and Outlook | |
| 16-Jan | 0700 | Nov | GDP/ Trade/ Services/ Production/ Construction |
| 17-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Retail Sales |
| 21-Jan | 0700 | Nov/Dec | Labour Market Survey |
| 22-Jan | 0001 | Jan | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 22-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Public Sector Finances |
| 23-Jan | 1100 | Jan | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 24-Jan | 0001 | Jan | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 24-Jan | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jan | 1100 | Jan | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 28-Jan | 0001 | Jan | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 30-Jan | 0930 | Dec | BOE M4/ Lending to Individuals |
| 03-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 05-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services PMI |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
Jan-14 06:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 14-Jan | 735 | EU | ECB's Lane speech on Europe, Asia and the Changing Globe |
| 14-Jan | 900 | IT | Industrial Production |
| 15-Jan | 315 | EU | ECB's Lane in fireside chat at GS global macro conference |
| 15-Jan | 745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 15-Jan | 800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 15-Jan | 800 | EU | ECB's De Guindos at 15th Spain Investors Day |
| 15-Jan | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production |
| 16-Jan | 700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 16-Jan | 900 | IT | HICP (f) |
| 16-Jan | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 16-Jan | 1230 | EU | Account of Dec 2024 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting |
| 17-Jan | 900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 17-Jan | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 17-Jan | 1100 | EU | ECB's Cipollone lecture at Crypto Asset Lab conference |
| 20-Jan | 700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Jan | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 20-Jan | EU | ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting |
GBPUSD: Southbound
Jan-14 06:08
- RES 4: 1.2613 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 2: 1.2456/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2367 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 1.2205@ 06:08 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10
- SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair traded to a fresh trend low on Monday. Last week’s move down confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.
