EMISSIONS: EUAs Open Interest Near Highest Level Since DEC24 Expiry
EUAs aggregated open interest as of 27 May was nearing the highest level since DEC24 contract expiry, while the price rose almost 13% during the period, suggesting an overall bullish sentiment with stronger long positioning.
- The latest open interest was at 657.023k contracts as of 27 May, just slightly below the highest level since DEC24 expiry at 657.418k on 19 May.
- Since the MAR25 contract expiry, the open interest has grown nearly 8%, while the price up almost 4%.
- Meanwhile, the EUA DEC25 open interest was at 318k contract as of 27 May, below the prior five-year seasonality at 364k contract.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 5773.25 High Apr 2
- RES 2: 5622.38 50-day EMA and a key resistance
- RES 1: 5563.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5561.50 @ 14:27 BST Apr 28
- SUP 1: 5355.25/5127.25 Low Apr 24 / 21 and a key support
- SUP 2: 4996.43 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
- SUP 3: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
The corrective bull cycle in S&P E-Minis that started on Apr 7, remains in play. The contract traded higher last week and breached a number of important short-term resistance points. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced 5528.75, the Apr 10 high. The next key resistance is 5622.38, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen a bull theme. Initial key support lies at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. A break would be bearish.
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls
SPX: 5,538.3 (+0.2%); DJIA: 40,235 (+0.3%/+122pts); NDX: 19,470.3 (+0.2%).
US: GOP Leaders Faces Toughest Test Yet As Reconcilliation Markup Begins
Republican-led House committees will tomorrow begin marking up the massive reconciliation package that GOP leadership hopes to pass in a party-line vote before Memorial Day. The package covers the bulk of President Donald Trump’s tax, border security, and energy agenda and is likely to include a roughly four trillion-dollar hike to the federal debt limit.
- For the first time, House Republicans will ink out the specifics of huge cuts to government services they outlined in broad strokes in their budget blueprint. The cuts, including USD$880 billion from the Department of Commerce, are likely to include major reforms to safety net programmes like Medicaid.
- So far, House Republican leadership has defied expectations, forcing a series of votes through a razor-thin majority despite warnings from conservatives over deficit spending in the reconciliation bill.
- This month’s mark-ups will be a more difficult lift for leadership. House Republican cuts are likely to go beyond what is palatable for House moderates and Senate Republicans and come as Trump’s sinking approval rating flashes warning signs for frontline Republicans.
- The Treasury Department is expected to send Congress its formal projection for the so-called X-date this week. As the reconciliation package includes a debt limit hike, the X-date will provide a hard backstop for getting the package through Congress.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will meet Trump at the White House at 14:00 ET 19:00 BST to discuss reconciliation. The pair may discuss the prospect of a millionaire tax as a revenue source.
