EMISSIONS: EUA Rally Faces Downside Risks Next Month: BNEF
The latest bullish momentum in EU carbon prices could see some downside risks next month, with an expected drop in power sector emissions, while lower gas prices could further limit the upside in EUAs according to BNEF.
- European power sector emissions in selected markets are tracking a 6% decline on the year in January, after emissions rose by less than 1% in January on the month. Power sector emissions are expected to decline by 26% on the month in February.
- European industrial emissions declined by 16.2% on the month in January, and slightly above 2024 levels.
- Aviation emissions this month decreased by 5.5% on the month but were 4.5% above last year’s levels. Emissions are expected to increase gradually but will fall back in-line with 2024 levels by April.
- Emissions from the shipping sector were 5% lower on the month in January and 7.7% below 2024 levels.
- The correlation between EUAs and TTF gas prices declined to 84% so far in January, compared with 87% in December.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Interview with BoF Senior Economist
Bank of France senior economist Klodiana Istrefi discusses expressions of uncertainty and interest rates. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
SILVER TECHS: Bearish Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.676 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $28.945 @ 07:58 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Flag Formation
- RES 4: 1.4667 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4367 @ 07:52 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4277/4103 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
- SUP 4: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.42779, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
