EMISSIONS: EUA Positioning Turns More Bullish

Jan-02 09:19

Speculator positioning in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange turned more bullish after two consecutive weeks of more bearish positionings, the latest COT data as of 27 December 2024 showed.

  • Investment Funds net long positionings increased to +4,549 from +996 in the previous week.
  • Investment Firm net short positionings rose by 1,791 to -275,813.
  • Commercial Undertaking net long positionings increased by 3,690 to +212,400.
  • EU ETS Dec25 allowances last week rose by 4.9% on the week, mirroring gains in EU gas prices amid the anticipated end of the Russian-Ukraine gas transit deal.

Historical bullets

FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY

Dec-03 09:18

Of note:

EURUSD 1.17bn at 1.0500.

EURUSD 1.23bn at 1.0500 (Wed).

AUDUSD 1.22bn at 0.6500 (wed).

EURUSD 1.54bn at 1.0500 (fri).

  • EURUSD: 1.0470 (727mln), 1.0500 (1.17bn), 1.0550 (290mln), 1.0565 (530mln), 1.0580 (478mn), 1.0600 (333mln).
  • USDCNY: 7.3000 (483mln).

US TSY FUTURES: Possible Short Cover Via TU Block

Dec-03 08:58

{US} US TSY FUTURES: Only real flow of note in early London dealing comes via a block of 3.8K TUH5 futures at 103-01.

  • Looks like as buyer, could represent short cover after a block sale of the exact same size was logged in early London hours on Monday (would represent a small loss with the initial block lodged at 103-00). 

EQUITIES: Some notable early moves in European Equities

Dec-03 08:54
  • A fairly notable early move in European Equities, spiking higher since the Cash open.
  • Although Travel & Leisure leads, Equity desks are mostly pointing at the Banking sector, with most French Bank up over 1%, and the Banking sector is up over 1.50% in early trade, after lagging Yesterday, with similar price action in OATs, outperforming Bund this morning.
  • Some Year end flow are also being suggested, but unconfirmed.
  • Next resistance in VGZ4 is seen at 4961.00.
  • Bank index (SX7E) sees upside resistance at 142.96, the 50% retrace of the November fall.