EMISSIONS: EUA Auction Calendar Week Ahead (Calendar Week 34)
{A total of 13.4mn EUAs will be auctioned next week, with 5 auction sessions will be held. The latest EU ETS auction cleared at €70.54/tCO2e, up 0.63% w/w, staying above the 100-day average but slipping back below the 10- and 50-day averages after briefly rising above them earlier this week.
- A total of 372mn EUAs has been auctioned so far this year, accounting for 55% of the 2025 total volume.
- The mean and median market forecasts for EUAs spot price in 2025 Q3 are at €72.38/t and €72.85/t, above the latest auction price, according to Bloomberg.
- The latest auction was at a €0.11/ton CO2e discount to the futures contract, compared with a €0.03/ton CO2e premium in the previous round.
- EUA DEC 25 down 1.52% at 70.65 EUR/t CO2e
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EQUITIES: JPM Earnings Mixed, Volatility in Share Price Pre-Market
- 2Q EPS $5.24
- 2Q ADJ. REV. $45.68B, EST. $44.05B
- 2Q FICC SALES & TRADING REV $5.69B, EST. $5.22B
- 2Q INVESTMENT BANKING REV. $2.68B, EST. $2.16B" - bbg
Highlights from the JPM results, which have seen the stock swing between gains and losses pre-market:
- Markets: "IB activity started slow but gained momentum as market sentiment improved, and IB fees were up 7% for the quarter.", "Markets revenue up 15%, with fixed income up 14%, equities up 15%."
- The economy: "US economy remained resilient. Finalization of tax reform and potential deregulation are positive for the economic outlook."
- On Tariffs: "Significant risks persist – including from tariffs and trade uncertainty"
- Home lending: "Home Lending net revenue was $1.3 billion, down 5%, predominantly driven by lower net interest income."
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 112-23 High May 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: 112-15 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-12+ High Jul 1 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 111-13+/111-28 High Jul 10 / High Jul 3
- PRICE: 110-26 @ 11:30 BST Jul 15
- SUP 1: 110-20/17 Low Jul 14 / 61.8% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 2: 110-10+ Low Jun 16
- SUP 3: 110-03 76.4% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
Treasury futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows. Price has breached the 50-day EMA, at 110-31. This undermines a recent bull theme and exposes 110-17 next, a Fibonacci retracement point and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Note that it also remains possible that the recent move down is a correction. Resistance to watch is at 111-13+, Jul 10 high.
US-EU: EU Spox-Not Moving Forward w/Trade Countermeasures Pre-Aug 1
Reuters reports comments from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz regarding the state of trade relations between the EU and US. Says that the "goal is a quick solution", and says he is in close contact with US President Donald Trump and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Says that the EU is refraining from countermeasures "for now", but that "the US should not underestimate [the EU's] willingness to respond." MNI's Policy team reported on 14 July that EU officials are targeting a series of mini trade deals for key industries, even if Trump's 30% tariffs are imposed from 1 Aug (see 'MNI: EU Hopes For Mini-Deals With US Despite Tariff Threat')
- Separately, a Commission spox says that Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will hold a call with USTR Jamieson Greer this evening after talking with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on 14 July. In line with Merz's comments, the spox that the EU "has no intention to move forward with any trade countermeasures before 1 Aug", and that a Commission team is en route to Washington, D.C., to continue working-level talks.
