EMISSIONS: EUA Auction Calendar Week Ahead (Calendar Week 32)

Continued: Senate Majority Leader Thune (R-SD) was also seen huddling with Senator Paul overnight, reportedly to sound out a debt limit compromise. The Senate package includes a USD$5T debt limit raise; Paul is pushing for USD$500B – a number that will be opposed by some Senate Republicans as it would set up another debt limit cliff in a few months.

• The chamber is yet to vote on Senator Rick Scott’s (R-FL) amendment to scale back federal payments under the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion. The amendment is expected to fail, but if it passes, it could harden the resolve of moderates to reject the bill.
• While our baseline expectation is the bill passes the Senate today, the implied probability of the BBB passing by July 4 dropped around 25% since yesterday, reflecting the slow progress through the Senate.
• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has teed up a House Rules Committee meeting today to set the parameters of the bill. If the bill passes the Senate today, Rules will target a full House vote on Wednesday. This timeline now looks likely to slip until later in the week, beyond the GOP's self-imposed July 4 deadline for sending the completed bill to President Trump's desk.
• Punchbowl notes: "The Senate was supposed to be the easy part. This GOP reconciliation bill is going to hit even choppier waters in the House."

Figure 1: “Reconciliation bill passed by...?”

Source: Polymarket

The Senate ‘vote-a-rama’ on the One Big Beautiful Bill continued through the night with Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) struggling to whip the 50 votes required for a final roll call vote. When Thune believes he has locked down the votes, he will trigger a vote on final passage. Reminder: Thune can only drop three GOP votes. 

• Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) has long stated his ‘no’ vote in opposition to the debt limit hike. Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) declared himself a ‘no’ over the weekend and announced he will not seek re-election in 2026, citing concerns over Medicaid cuts.
• Kelly Phares at Fox reports that Tillis "believes this will go a couple more hours" and affirmed that the only way to get him to yes would be to return to the House Medicaid reforms.
• Overnight, moderate Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) moved to the 'no' column after the Senate Parliamentarian determined that a SNAP carveout for Alaska could go forward, but a separate Medicaid carveout for Alaska was noncompliant with budget reconciliation.
• Murkowski is also one of a handful of Republican Senators backing an amendment to water down the rollback of clean energy credits from the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act.
• The vote of another moderate Senator, Susan Collins (R-ME), is also unclear after her push to boost supplemental funding for rural hospitals was rejected. Politico notes that Collins said she would have preferred breaking out the tax portion of the policy package on a separate track.

ERM6 97.75p, bought for 4.25 in 6k total.