Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg.
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Despite the latest pullback in USDCAD, a bullish trend condition remains intact for now and the move lower appears to be a correction. The pair has recently cleared 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 highs, strengthening a bullish theme. Note too, that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Key support to watch is 1.3626, the 50-day EMA. This average was pierced last Friday, but remains intact as a support, for now.
AUDUSD traded higher Friday and in the process breached resistance at 0.6587, the Apr 29 high. The break cancels a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. This opens 0.6668, the Mar 8 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, a move below 0.6465, the May 1 low, is required to reinstate a bearish threat.
SONIA futures are little changed to 6.5bp firmer through the blues, with the GBP short end mostly following core global STIR markets after a long weekend in London.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-24 | 5.201 | +0.1 |
Jun-24 | 5.089 | -11.1 |
Aug-24 | 4.954 | -24.6 |
Sep-24 | 4.861 | -33.9 |
Nov-24 | 4.745 | -45.5 |
Dec-24 | 4.653 | -54.7 |