EMISSIONS: "EU REACHES DEAL TO EXEMPT 90% OF FIRMS FROM CARBON BORDER LEVY"-BBG
Jun-18 13:20
* "*EU REACHES DEAL TO EXEMPT 90% OF FIRMS FROM CARBON BORDER LEVY"-BBG...
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FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 13/26/28/52-week BTFs
May-19 12:56
| Type | 13-week BTF | 26-week BTF | 28-week BTF | 52-week BTF |
| Maturity | Aug 20, 2025 | Nov 19, 2025 | Dec 3, 2025 | May 20, 2026 |
| Amount | E2.993bln | E1.898bln | E598mln | E2.098bln |
| Target | E2.6-3.0bln | E1.5-1.9bln | E0.2-0.6bln | E1.7-2.1bln |
| Previous | E2.993bln | E1.797bln | E1.797bln | E1.998bln |
| Avg yield | 2.042% | 2.011% | 2.004% | 1.947% |
| Previous | 2.057% | 2.023% | 2.023% | 1.985% |
| Bid-to-cover | 4.33x | 3.94x | 6.86x | 3.44x |
| Previous | 3.96x | 4.15x | 4.15x | 3.36x |
| Previous date | May 12, 2025 | May 12, 2025 | May 12, 2025 | May 12, 2025 |
US TSY FUTURES: TU/UXY Steepener blocked
May-19 12:51
Latest block trades lodged at 08:32:39 NY/13:32:39 London:
- TUM5 15.5K lots blocked at 103-08.25, looks like a buyer.
- UXYM5 6.7K lots blocked at 111-12+, looks like a seller.
- Would suggest a ~$570K Dv01 steepener, with subsequent price action on the 2s10as cash curve adding weight to that idea.
US TSYS: Goldman Marked End Of Year Yield Forecasts Higher Before Moody’s Action
May-19 12:38
Just ahead of Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating late on Friday Goldman Sachs revised their year-end 2-Year & 10-Year Tsy yield forecasts to 3.90% and 4.50%, respectively (from 3.30% and 4.00% previously).
- They reasoned that “the combination of a smaller mechanical tariff headwind and a meaningful reversal in financial conditions from the early-April peak has trimmed the downside risk around growth. With inflation still likely to reaccelerate meaningfully - albeit to a slightly lower peak than before - the baseline for further Fed cuts has shifted later and slower, with a quarterly cadence of cuts beginning in December reaching an unchanged terminal rate projection of 3.50-3.75% in June 2026”.
- For shorter maturity rates, Goldman think that “the absence of a clear growth catalyst may keep yields trade somewhat range-bound from here, but the vulnerability for now is closer to a carry drag than a clear case for substantial cheapening. The asymmetry is still to a sharp rally on bad news, with the market-implied probability of recession-type cuts having retreated significantly since the end of April”.
