LNG: EU Needs to Boost LNG Import Rates to Hit Storage Target: GFB
May-01 09:51
EU Needs to Boost LNG Import Rates to Hit Storage Target: GFB
Europe is likely to need to increase LNG imports above the rates in recent weeks to ensure storage capacity is refilled ahead of the next winter, GFB Insight said.
- The market, however, suggests that it s increasingly confident that this will become easier as the year goes on, GFB added.
- April saw an inversion of some of the Q1 market trends, with Vortexa showing that lower global LNG supply mostly corresponded with a decrease in European imports, which fell 22% on the month.
- Most of the reduction came in markets with a stronger seasonality in LNG imports, such as the UK and Turkey.
- However, only some of the volumes no longer needed from these markets have been rerouted to those with more access to seasonal storage, such as France and the Netherlands.
- EU demand at levels below seasonal expectations in April also likely played a role, GFB added.
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TARIFFS: Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs - What to Expect?
Apr-01 09:50
- What we know: Trump, with his cabinet in attendance, will announce the details of his reciprocal tariff plan at 1500ET/2000BST tomorrow, aiming to address "unfair" trade practices with "country-based" tariffs. Sectoral duties will still be implemented, but will not be the focus Wednesday - so don't expect details on Autos, copper, pharma, or otherwise. There will be "no exemptions at this time" - meaning there appears to be little room for bilateral negotiation at this stage.
- What we don't know: Which countries will be targeted, what the outright levies will be, and when they will be effective by. It is also not clear whether tariffs will 'stack' - e.g. whether Aluminium exports to the US from a tariffed country will be double charged. It is also unknown whether goods deemed compliant under USMCA, or other trade agreements, will be exempt, or subject to an outright tariff.
- What does the market expect? There is no real consensus on what the outright tariff % could be, however it's expected that those that maintain the largest relative trade surpluses with the US will be targeted most heavily (including, but not limited to, the EU, China, Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea). Average levies are expected to range between 10-20%, but outsized risk remains - particularly considering Trump's recent threats to charge as much as 50% tariffs on Canadian goods in the short-lived rift over Ontario's electricity surcharges.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Longer dated call spread
Apr-01 09:44
ERM6 98.875/99.00/99.375c ladder, bought for -1 in 2k.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Latest notable Options
Apr-01 09:39
- ERM5 97.875/98.00cs, sold at 5.25 in 7k.
- ERZ5 98.0625/98.25cs vs 97.75/97.50ps, bought for 3.5 in 7k.
- 0RJ5/0RK5 98.00/98.12cs vs 97.5625p, bought the May for 0.25 in 10k.
