POWER: EU Mid-Day Power Summary: Nordics Lead Gains, France Diverges
Nov-17 12:20
French December has flipped red from the morning session to be weighed down by an upward revision of temperatures in the month ahead forecast and firm nuclear availability. Nordics are leading gains on cooler temperatures and a drier outlook in the region, increasing supply risks.
- Nordic Base Power DEC 25 up 3.5% at 67.30 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power DEC 25 down 1.3% at 68.55 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power DEC 25 up 0.1% at 100.93 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 1% at 80.63 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas DEC 25 up 0.2% at 31.315 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month is slightly higher supported by expected higher demand due to cold weather this week.
- EUAs are pulling back on Monday with correlation between EUAs and TTF, EU equities and German power relatively even. UKAs are pulling back after hitting a new record high on Friday and earlier this morning.
- Germany’s monthly onshore wind additions in October increased to 597.9MW, up from 336.6MW in September and from 204.3MW in October 2024.
- Germany plans to keep future renewable tender volumes unchanged.
- The unplanned 500MW curtailment at the 2GW IFA power interconnector between the UK and France has been extended to 20 February 2026 from 15 January 2026.
- A report from France’s Cour des Comptes, Court of Auditors, find that EdF will need to invest more than €100.8bn between 2014 and 2035 to extend the lifetime of its nuclear reactors by up to 60 years.
- France will scrap its low €42/MWh regulated nuclear tariff this year and transition to new contracts priced around €61.5/MWh, narrowing the gap with wholesale power and strengthening competition in the corporate PPA market.
- Terna has announced the procedures and key deadlines for its 2026 hedging auctions against transmission capacity charge (CCC) volatility, with annual and monthly auctions starting December 18 and December 30.
- Montenegro’s sole thermal coal power plant, the 225MW TE Pljevlja, will restart by 1 December after a €70mn ecological overhaul, restoring around 40% of the country’s electricity supply.
- Europe’s power industry warns that ageing grids—30% already over 40 years old— could block up to 1,220GW of PV by 2050 unless the Commission acts in its upcoming Grids Package
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
