POWER: EU Mid-Day Power Summary: France Diverges from Nordics, EU Power Curve
Nov-18 12:20
Most EU front-month futures are trading in green amid gains in TTF costs and EU ETS, with cooler temperatures adding upward pressure. While France diverged, surrounding an increased cut on the 2GW IFA power link, reducing power exports. However, cooler temperatures limit the decline.
- Nordic Base Power DEC 25 up 2.1% at 69.25 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power DEC 25 down 0.2% at 68.16 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power DEC 25 up 1% at 102.37 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 1.3% at 81.22 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas DEC 25 up 1.4% at 31.835 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month is extending the rally from a low of €30.285/MWh on Nov. 13 with support from cold weather in Europe this week.
- EUAs December 2025 are trading higher in Tuesday’s session, tracking gains in EU gas prices.
- Germany enters winter 2025-26 with gas storage at around 75%, raising risks of shortages by mid-January if extreme cold hit.
- The unplanned 500MW curtailment on the 2GW IFA power interconnector between the UK and France has been increased to a 1GW cut that will last until 20 February 2026.
- The 455MW Lestijarvi onshore wind farm in Finland is scheduled to be commissioned from 28 November, compared with 20 November previously scheduled.
- Norway’s total energy use remains around 300TWh but is declining overall, while electricity consumption in data centres jumped 50% on the year to 1.4TWh in the 1H25.
- Lithuania’s Litgrid is launching a long-term study to assess Lithuania’s electricity system capacity and flexibility, with the completion expected by May 2026.
- Poland’s cross-border electricity flows to Germany, Czechia, and Slovakia in December 2025 will generally operate near full capacity, with NTC set at 1.6–1.8GW for exports and 1.8-2GW for imports.
- Orlen has advanced the build of its 1GW Baltic East offshore wind farm, securing an environmental approval and moving the project closer to Poland’s first offshore wind auction in December.
- October saw a record 2.06GW of European PPAs signed, led by corporate offtakers including Apple and SNCF, marking the highest monthly contracted capacity since December 2024.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
