POWER: EU Mid-Day Power Summary: CWE, Nordic May Diverge From TTF
CWE front-month power futures are trading higher on the day to resist losses in TTF, with EU ETS costs recovering. Nordics are being supported by unplanned extended works at the 1.17GW Forsmak 3 and cooler temperatures, offsetting the 1.6GW OL3 return and stronger hydro balances in Norway and Sweden.
- Nordic Base Power MAY 25 up 2.2% at 21.25 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power MAY 25 up 4.4% at 28.5 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power MAY 25 up 1.8% at 66.64 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.4% at 65.03 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAY 25 down 1.7% at 31.85 EUR/MWh
- TTF is extending declines seen Monday amidst steady LNG imports to Europe and muted demand in Asia. Uncertainty still surrounds global demand given ongoing US trade negotiations, while Norwegian outages are set to rise.
- EU carbon allowances have rebounded from their morning lows amid a small recovery in EU gas prices and a downward revision in wind output forecasts for CWE.
- France’s Engie has advanced its outright power hedges for its Belgian and French power production for the years 2025-2027.
- A Spanish judge has launched a formal investigation into whether a nationwide blackout earlier this week was the result of a cyberattack.
- Spain and Portugal have restored power supplies as of Tuesday morning, operators in both countries have confirmed, after countrywide blackouts caused massive disruptions to power supplies at around 12:35PM on Monday.
- Equinor and Polenergia have secured the final environmental decision for the 1.56GW Baltyk 1 offshore wind farm, marking an important milestone to participate in in the 2025 auction.
- Vattenfall has advanced its power hedges for its planned Nordic nuclear and hydropower generation for 2026-27, with the achieved price above the equivalent Nordic power contracts. While its 2025 hedging ratio dropped on the quarter.
- Uncertainty and turbulence caused by the trade dispute could weigh on European energy demand with firm’s pausing investments, Vattenfall CEO Anna Borg said.
- Fortum has advanced its power hedges for its planned generation in 2026, while keeping hedging levels for 2025 stable on the quarter.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.4402 High Mar 20
- PRICE: 1.4292 @ 16:50 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD traded through support at 1.4242 on Wednesday but has recovered. A return lower and clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. First resistance is 1.4402, the Mar 20 high.
US FISCAL: Debt Limit "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up, But Cash Dipping Pre-Tax
Treasury data shows that there were $207B of "extraordinary measures" available to circumvent hitting the debt limit as of Wednesday Mar 26.
- That's the most since Jan 27th and up from $163B a week earlier, from a total $376B available.
- However, Treasury cash in the TGA fell to $316B as of the 26th (and was down to $280B on Thursday), meaning there were a combined $523B of resources available to avert the debt limit, the lowest since the impasse began in January (and half of the starting amount of just over $1T).
- The next couple of weeks will be very important for Treasury, as they represent the biggest tax take of the year. The Congressional Budget Office reported this week that per its estimates "if the debt limit [$36.1T] remains unchanged, the government's ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025." Treasury wrote to Congress this month that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18
- PRICE: 0.6291 @ 16:46 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is unchanged. A short-term bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.
