EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon/Power Summary: Carbon Rises, UK Power Fall

May-01 11:25

EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising, influenced by EU gas intraday movement, with the intraday correlation between carbon and gas remaining high. UK June power base load is trending lower with losses in gas prices weighed against higher UKAs and a sharp downward revision in UK wind output next week.

  • EUA DEC 25 up 0.93% at 67.17 EUR/t CO2e
  • UKA DEC 25 up 1.59% at 47.96 GBP/t CO2e
  • TTF Gas JUN 25 down 1.5% at 31.84 EUR/MWh
  • NBP Gas JUN 25 down 1.9% at 76.46 GBp/therm
  • Estoxx 50 down 0.3% at 5107
  • FTSE 100 JUN 25 up 0.4% at 8494
  • The intraday correlation between EUAs/TTF hit the height at 0.77 near noon
  • The intraday correlation between EUAs/UKAs hit the height at 0.65.
  • The EBRD will provide financing for the studies of the 3GW GREGY subsea power link between Greece and Egypt.
  • Drax hedged 21.1TWh of forward power sales at an average achieved price of £93.6/MWh for its generation between 2025 and 2027 as of 29 April.
  • Spain’s deputy prime minister Yolanda Diaz urged the state to take control of Spain’s grid operator, Red Electrica, following the power blackout on Monday.
  • CRU forecasted EUAs to rise in May amid falling wind generation and gas-to-coal switching, while Carbon Pulse said that analysts had cut expectation due to bearish fundamentals, they said.
  • A coalition of more than 50 signatories has called on the EU and UK to initiate talks on linking their ETS ahead of EU-UK Summit on 19 May, according to the joint letter.

Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'25 10Y Sale

Apr-01 11:21
  • -2,500 TYM5 111-23.5 (+16.5), sale through 111-24 post time bid at 0701:41ET, DV01 $158,000. The 10Y contract trades 111-24 last.

OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trendline Resistance In Gilts Remains Exposed

Apr-01 11:21
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain firm for now. Recent gains are considered corrective, however, the breach of the 20-day EMA and a print above resistance at 129.41, the Jan 14 low, strengthens a bullish theme and opens the 130.00 handle and 130.26, the 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg. Key short-term support to watch lies at 127.74, the Mar 25 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal.
  • The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, recent gains highlight a corrective bounce and this signals scope for a stronger recovery near-term. Sights are on 92.49, a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 4 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the short-term bull cycle and open 93.01, the Mar 20 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 90.55, the Mar 27 low.

EUR: FX Exchange traded Option

Apr-01 11:17

EURUSD (4th April) 1.0550p, sold at 0.00010 in 1k.